Super Tuesday II: Six More Things I Know And Share

Don't believe the press. Only these two are standing.

Don’t believe the press. Only these two are standing.



Remember the Six Things I Know And Share? 

Let us see where we are now, and let us add some more things.

Rubio was eventually woken up (by his donors). 

I had predicted for Rubio a defeat of Grand Canyon proportions. I think it was even worse. The man managed to remain 19% behind Trump, in his own State, where he had staked all his cards. He was basically nowhere anywhere else yesterday. In Florida, he only won his own county. Pathetic. Embarrassing. A waste of money. And this is the man who prevented Cruz from trying to catch up with Trump? Where have his chances ever been? He has never been in the race. He merely said he was, and the press pretended to believe him because it suited them. One good thing of the so-called “low education voters” is that they do not care a straw for what the press says. They are, in this, far smarter than their “better educated” counterparts.

I have the insisting, disturbing suspicion that Rubio really was so deluded that he thought he could lose Florida (even if by a lesser margin than the earth-shattering 19% Trump gave him) and keep getting the money to stay in the race at pleasure. Someone must give the man tuition in reality. 

Trump still has no ceiling

Keep looking at Trump’s figures, because they are the key to the next months. Florida was considered a safe Rubio state by most observers only a month ago. Trump got 46% there. Forty. Six. 41% in Missouri. 40% in North Carolina. Even in Ohio, Trump got 36%!   

Forget the ceiling. Trump has no “ceiling”; no more than Evil Hillary at least. Polls give Trump losing against XY until the point comes where they give Trump winning. We have seen this many times this year. 

Horror scenarios are still not credible.

Cruz has vowed several times to support Trump if the latter is the clear winner. He made even an extremely strong rhetorical point, and said that in order for him not to support Trump, Trump would have to shoot someone on the Fifth Avenue (you remember the joke). Unsurprisingly, some stupid journos have commented that Cruz is qualifying his support for Trump. Morons with a laptop.

Trump and Cruz will absolutely dominate this race among them. There is no way Cruz will start such a civil war within the party. The others will be, at this point, fully irrelevant. Newt Gingrich said it very well

“There are two potential presidential nominees. One is named Donald. One is named Ted. The idea that some clever Washington intellectual or power broker — put quote marks around ‘power broker’— can step into an election in which millions have voted and magically change the trajectory of history? It’s goofy. There’s two players standing.”

Cruz still has a chance. Time is running out. 

Rubio is now out, and only Cruz can stop Trump. But it would be a mistake to simply add the votes. Trump will, most likely, get votes from Rubio supporters as he got some of the Christie and Bush ones. But at least now we have a clear alternative, and it’s the one or the other. I don’t think Kasich will damage Cruz much, either. Kasich has no chance. Those who vote him now do it as alternative to not voting, not to voting Cruz.   

Kasich may puff his chest today, but he will soon discover he is, after Ohio, as irrelevant as he was before. Winning one vote among exactly thirty to date isn’t exactly encouraging. He only has 138 delegates as I write this (Missouri has not been called yet), against even Rubio’s 164. He will now take the “protest” votes among the Republicans, and he will not stay for long as his irrelevance is very apparent to my cat. Even the only absurd, hypothetical argument for pumping money into a loser’s campaign (trying to get to a brokered convention which then goes for.. whom exactly?) is now impossible to pursue.

Cruz and Trump will divide among them pretty much all the electors from now on. Kasich will be nowhere. He is a Zombie Candidate.

 The GOP Softies have some hard choice to make. 

I am thrilled at thinking of all those rosewater Republicans, all those RINOs now in complete, full desperation. They are now officially between a rock (Trump) and a hard place (Cruz). They might be tempted to vote Hillary, and some will do; but hate for the witch runs deep in the nation’s veins. It’s like eating cr@p because you don’t like beetroot. 

I think the establishment will leave Cruz or Trump alone: no money, no open support, but no open enmity. They know this would mean they would lose whatever control over the party they still have. The GOP as a brand has lost almost all value. As a Republican candidate you perform much better if you are against it. If I were a RINO grandee I would prefer to shut up and wait for better times, rather than shatter the toy (and myself) in one thousand fragments.

My take is that there will be isolated screeches of professional whinos, but the majority will come to term with the new reality: it’s going to be Cruz or Trump, baby. 

The Karl Rove Mentality is over. 

After ruining two cycles, the Karl Rove mentality (“let us pick a candidate who can pretend to be a conservative whilst screwing Conservatism at every step”) is now gone. From 2010 on, the people have started to find a voice, and to say they have enough of this. Trump and Cruz are the result of the inability of the party apparatus to get simple things for now six years, and of their will to fight the message from the country at every step.

Try to repair this now. This is a full-blown revolution. It’s unstoppable. If I am right, in November we will see a Congress even more hostile to Rove-ism. The revolution is going on full steam even among those who don’t like Trump.

There. Six more things I know and share.

It still helps me not to think about Francis.




Posted on March 16, 2016, in Catholicism, Conservative Catholicism, Traditional Catholicism. Bookmark the permalink. 9 Comments.

  1. That last sentence made me smile!

  2. I think a Trump/Cruz ticket is the only way the Republicans defeat Hillary. If either Trump or Cruz are not on the ticket through political chicanery one or the others’ supporters will stay home in November, assuring victory to the witch.

    • Oh, if Cruz supports Trump in the end (I am sure he will) he does not necessarily need to be on the ticket. I can see in Cruz a formidable Secretary of State, for example. Hillary and Body Odour got the same kind of agreement.
      Or Supreme Court for Cruz, if he so wishes. Although I think he is material for 2024.

  3. The last sentence brought a smile to me, too. And look what happened while I wasn’t thinking about Francis: Benedict made some great comments! (Yes, I know, too little, to vague, too late…I’ll take those comments anyway.) And the sun was shining here in very wet Oregon, USA, so it was a good day.😉

  4. “Lying Ted” does it again: This time he accuses Trump of “trying to stir up riots” (according to Breitbart). Smacks of desperation right after having been shut out of Super Tuesday II.

    He went into March 15 with a lot of momentum, but he lost it after he tried to blame leftist violence in Chicago on Trump. Then he failed to win any state and narrowly lost even Missouri which, given its demographics similar to Iowa and Kansas, should have been a walkover.

    Cruz is doing his best to ingratiate himself with the Karl Rove crowd and morph into Rubio II.

    • Well, unkess I am mistaken, you predicted that Rubio would do good, so his stance should help Cruz?😉

      If you call “liar” Cruz for that, I wonder what Trump is to you.


    • “Lying Ted” is how Trump calls him. I merely quoted this appellation, which is why I wrote it in quotation marks. Personally I am unsure whether Cruz is a liar or really believes what he says about leftist violence and Trump stirring up riots.

      Trump, of course, is a liar.

      I was surprised by how quickly Rubio was abandoned by his establishment “friends”, after Super Tuesday, but yes, it might actually help Cruz win the nomination. I recently gamed out a few paths ahead using the RCP Delegate Tracking tool and generally came up with Trump having a plurality but less than 1237, with Cruz behind him, but a chance of finishing first in delegates if he manages to win over Kasich support in the Northeast (and the Rubio delegates who are now unbound and mostly free to support another candidate). By positioning himself as the ultimate anti-Trump he might make himself more acceptable to them at the price of losing some of his own base.

      In terms of power politics Cruz might be making a smart move, but it is still a desparate one because it requires him to abandon much of what made him attractive to his own base in the first place.

    • I have followed election since 1976 and I do not remember a candidate so obviously without hope that did not end up without money, too. Kasich would be the first, and I very much doubt. Kasich may still sell his cards as the candidate that will do oh so well in the atheist northwest, but once everyone knows he is destined to finish third at most he will lose the votes of all but those who want Hillary to win.

      Today some shocking NY polls came out. I think Trump may well get his 1237 delegates. But if not, Cruz will support him and there will be no discussion at all. I will wait for Kasich to withdraw (soon, I think) before re-assessing Cruz’ chances. For now, bar big surprises, I see only one possible winner.


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