Super Tuesday II: Six More Things I Know And Share
Remember the Six Things I Know And Share?
Let us see where we are now, and let us add some more things.
Rubio was eventually woken up (by his donors).
I had predicted for Rubio a defeat of Grand Canyon proportions. I think it was even worse. The man managed to remain 19% behind Trump, in his own State, where he had staked all his cards. He was basically nowhere anywhere else yesterday. In Florida, he only won his own county. Pathetic. Embarrassing. A waste of money. And this is the man who prevented Cruz from trying to catch up with Trump? Where have his chances ever been? He has never been in the race. He merely said he was, and the press pretended to believe him because it suited them. One good thing of the so-called “low education voters” is that they do not care a straw for what the press says. They are, in this, far smarter than their “better educated” counterparts.
I have the insisting, disturbing suspicion that Rubio really was so deluded that he thought he could lose Florida (even if by a lesser margin than the earth-shattering 19% Trump gave him) and keep getting the money to stay in the race at pleasure. Someone must give the man tuition in reality.
Trump still has no ceiling
Keep looking at Trump’s figures, because they are the key to the next months. Florida was considered a safe Rubio state by most observers only a month ago. Trump got 46% there. Forty. Six. 41% in Missouri. 40% in North Carolina. Even in Ohio, Trump got 36%!
Forget the ceiling. Trump has no “ceiling”; no more than Evil Hillary at least. Polls give Trump losing against XY until the point comes where they give Trump winning. We have seen this many times this year.
Horror scenarios are still not credible.
Cruz has vowed several times to support Trump if the latter is the clear winner. He made even an extremely strong rhetorical point, and said that in order for him not to support Trump, Trump would have to shoot someone on the Fifth Avenue (you remember the joke). Unsurprisingly, some stupid journos have commented that Cruz is qualifying his support for Trump. Morons with a laptop.
Trump and Cruz will absolutely dominate this race among them. There is no way Cruz will start such a civil war within the party. The others will be, at this point, fully irrelevant. Newt Gingrich said it very well:
“There are two potential presidential nominees. One is named Donald. One is named Ted. The idea that some clever Washington intellectual or power broker — put quote marks around ‘power broker’— can step into an election in which millions have voted and magically change the trajectory of history? It’s goofy. There’s two players standing.”
Cruz still has a chance. Time is running out.
Rubio is now out, and only Cruz can stop Trump. But it would be a mistake to simply add the votes. Trump will, most likely, get votes from Rubio supporters as he got some of the Christie and Bush ones. But at least now we have a clear alternative, and it’s the one or the other. I don’t think Kasich will damage Cruz much, either. Kasich has no chance. Those who vote him now do it as alternative to not voting, not to voting Cruz.
Kasich may puff his chest today, but he will soon discover he is, after Ohio, as irrelevant as he was before. Winning one vote among exactly thirty to date isn’t exactly encouraging. He only has 138 delegates as I write this (Missouri has not been called yet), against even Rubio’s 164. He will now take the “protest” votes among the Republicans, and he will not stay for long as his irrelevance is very apparent to my cat. Even the only absurd, hypothetical argument for pumping money into a loser’s campaign (trying to get to a brokered convention which then goes for.. whom exactly?) is now impossible to pursue.
Cruz and Trump will divide among them pretty much all the electors from now on. Kasich will be nowhere. He is a Zombie Candidate.
The GOP Softies have some hard choice to make.
I am thrilled at thinking of all those rosewater Republicans, all those RINOs now in complete, full desperation. They are now officially between a rock (Trump) and a hard place (Cruz). They might be tempted to vote Hillary, and some will do; but hate for the witch runs deep in the nation’s veins. It’s like eating cr@p because you don’t like beetroot.
I think the establishment will leave Cruz or Trump alone: no money, no open support, but no open enmity. They know this would mean they would lose whatever control over the party they still have. The GOP as a brand has lost almost all value. As a Republican candidate you perform much better if you are against it. If I were a RINO grandee I would prefer to shut up and wait for better times, rather than shatter the toy (and myself) in one thousand fragments.
My take is that there will be isolated screeches of professional whinos, but the majority will come to term with the new reality: it’s going to be Cruz or Trump, baby.
The Karl Rove Mentality is over.
After ruining two cycles, the Karl Rove mentality (“let us pick a candidate who can pretend to be a conservative whilst screwing Conservatism at every step”) is now gone. From 2010 on, the people have started to find a voice, and to say they have enough of this. Trump and Cruz are the result of the inability of the party apparatus to get simple things for now six years, and of their will to fight the message from the country at every step.
Try to repair this now. This is a full-blown revolution. It’s unstoppable. If I am right, in November we will see a Congress even more hostile to Rove-ism. The revolution is going on full steam even among those who don’t like Trump.
There. Six more things I know and share.
It still helps me not to think about Francis.