The Forgotten Country



The seaquake is coming


One element that never ceases to astonish me in this 2016 Presidential cycle is the great increase in voters’ participation.

A simple reading can be made of what has happened up to now in the Republican camp: whilst a part of the traditional Republican electorate is certainly angry, disillusioned and in open revolt (largely and loosely: the “Tea Party” component of it), the revolt keeps being fueled by a seemingly vast number of people who used not to vote, and are now going back to the ballot box en masse.

This would also explain why the polls (even those in good faith) used to pretty consistently underestimate Trump: it is difficult to know who is going to vote again after a long time, and the “likely voters” forecast models of the polling agencies must struggle to adjust to a new reality for which there are no recent comparisons.

What I think is happening is this: an entire section of the electorate, those who had been marginalised by the policies of the last twenty years or more and had therefore become disaffected and unrepresented – and therefore did not vote, not believing in the willingness of the traditional parties to represent them – has now awoken, and is coming back to the polling booth with a vengeance. 

They are the forgotten Country. Those so despised by the educated political class, disparagingly branded in various way as “rednecks”, “low education workforce”, and the like. Those who feel the sting of the Chinese and Mexican competition in the manufacturing industry on one side; and the nannies, the gardeners, the cleaning ladies in some Southern states, who feel the direct competition of a low-wage, low-rights, easily exploited workforce on the other.

It is easy to be for free trade if you are an IT consultant, a teacher, a banker, a qualified employee of any sort. But you are forgetting how many all the others are. Everyone in Washington did the same for many years. 

These voters are mainly Whites, and surely many of them used to be Democrats. But they are – the reds as well as the blues –  impervious to the liberal mantra of the White Guilt, and not interested at all in Hillary’s “Black lives count” rhetoric. They are many millions. They are not at ease about their future. Hillary has nothing to offer to them. Trump, an awful lot. They don’t follow the rules of Political Correctness. You call them “racists”, it does not even register. They will vote Trump with more gusto

It is like a seaquake. This big mass has suddenly emerged from the depth in which it had confined itself, and is now creating a wave that might well destroy the GOP as we know it. The Forgotten Country has found a hero, and – it pains me to say it – this hero is not Cruz, whose classical free trade ideology alienates them to him.  

Observe this: 

Electorate Demo Race

 If you ask me, the difference is the “forgotten Country”. Plus, you have to add a possibly big number of “Trump Democrats”, who will now switch their allegiance to Trump because… he truly speaks to them, addresses their fears, gives them a message they want to see implemented. If memory serves, Whites (excluding Hispanics) are still around 65%-70% of the Country. Already in this demographic there is enough potential to bury Hillary under a landslide of oh-so-despised “low education” votes. It seems to me the “educated” journalists’ class still hasn’t got the memo. 

Put the two together – the former non-voters, and the former Dem voters – and the figures we read around (primaries turnout increased by 100%, 200%, 300%!) start to make more sense. 

We see this happening in other ways, too. Cruz performs better in closed primaries, because his grip is stronger among those who already voted. But Trump can regularly tap (and this is only the beginning!) into a massive reservoir of votes that were just not there, at least not for every Republican candidate since, probably, Reagan.

Plus, ask yourself: how many of the Sanders voters feel more ideologically near to Trump than to Clinton? 10%? 15%? It does not need to be a huge number. Flip two million the other side and Hillary is cooked. Sanders may not work for Cruz, but he works for Trump, stirring a discontent that will bring more water to Trump’s mill. 

It is a mystery to me how the scale of what is happening is not noticed from the MSM. They keep repeating the same old mantras of the same old world: Hillary will win, because she is more “mainstream” than Trump. They say so (even if they are in good faith) because they think that the voters are a given number, a known entity, a closed circuit. It is not so. Trump a) is literally creating a new electorate out of nothing, and b) he will steal a lot of White, “low education” Democratic votes from Hillary in addition to that. Plus, notwithstanding all the “black lives matter” rhetoric, I very much doubt Hillary will manage to mobilise the Black electorate – the prime “votes against handouts” electoral reservoir of the Democrats – the same way The First Melanin President did.     

A Forgotten Country is emerging in this 2016 context. It is angry, and it is saying it out loud.

If you ask me, it has the potential to swamp and utterly wipe out the old logic of Washington politics. 






Posted on March 17, 2016, in Catholicism, Conservative Catholicism, Traditional Catholicism and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. 14 Comments.

  1. A number of people have mentioned to me that they’re voting for Trump. What’s striking is the way they’re doing it – they check to see no one’s listening, lower their voices and say, “You know, I’m voting for Trump”. There’s the dental receptionist, my accountant, the neighbor walking her dog. My daughter works at a pharmacy and has said that the majority of the employees who work there are for Trump. I think the whispering is done because people are afraid of workplace or social repercussions if the liberals around them hear about it. It reflects how awful it’s been getting here and people are just fed up with it.

    Fwiw, because I know you are a Cruz supporter, he would be a very effective President also. It’s just that Trump’s personality has overshadowed the man’s ability and, unfortunately (imo) Cruz went low-ground re the protestors to try to gain traction. It just looked opportunistic and didn’t help him to get the attention redirected back onto himself. Cruz is very solid on the issues but many of the people being attracted to Trump don’t think of themselves as politically conservative (even if they are) which is why they don’t automatically align with Cruz.

    • Extremely interested comment.
      It reminds me of Italy in the Seventies, when no one said they would vote for the Democrazia Cristiana and they ended up at almost 40%.
      Trump will screw the MSM and the establishment again and again.

      I think Cruz must do two things:
      1) learn and hone a different style of communication: less “protestant preacher”, more “favourite son-in-law”.
      2) embrace anti-Globalism.

      The man is good. Very good. I see in him wonderful material in 2024. Reagan also had to wait a long time.


  2. I hope you are right–not because I’m that fond of Trump, but because Hilary would be a disaster (or, I should say, further disaster) for the country. Though I disagree with Trump on his support for government medicine and for tariffs, at least he wouldn’t veto everything a Republican Congress put forth (as would Hilary)

    However your analysis leaves out two things. Among this 65to 70% of white voters are many who will NEVER vote for him because they’ve been told he’s immoral or dangerous–the. “Soccer Moms”, the social workers, the single women dependent in one way or another on the government. There are numerous blogs on Catholic and Protestant blogs declaring it is “immoral” to vote for Trump because he does not put his pinch of incense of the altar of diversity. Jews (other than the Othodox) seem unalterably against him.

    With respect to Black and Hispanic voters, turnout matters. Yes they may have turned out for Obams because of his melanin; they will turn out for Hilary to get the moola. The minute Trump is nominated we will hear the race card played like we never have before. The recent lies about Trump and David Duke are a preview of this. These scare tactics will bring to the polls those who vote for a living , but also hard working minorities who will buy the idea Trump will hurt them.

    The Republican primary voters are not a random sample of the nation, much as they might wish they were. How do you explain the fact that every poll that puts Trump against Hilary shows the latter winning, whereas at least some of the other Republican candidates were polled as beating her?

    • Honestly, i do not think “c”atholics blogs will move one single Trump supporter not to vote for him. The social workers etc were already voting democrat (threy are “politically aware”, so they vote) and we can happily cancel them from the equation. But the disillusioned one, they are an ocean.

      As to the Hispanics, I am hearing Trump is doing surprisingly well among them. I don’t think he will make great progress, but I don’t see him losing. I would also add (to end) that the problem with the poor is that they don’t vote. This is why Hillary pours fuel on the fire of racial hatred. She wants to motivate the lazy asses to go to the polls already. With the Hispanics is more difficult, because a number of them are certainly against illegal immigration with a passion.


  3. The “Trump is unelectable” narrative depends on the assumption that many standard Republicans will stay home, vote Hillary or third party if Trump is the nominee. This might happen, but it is a self-fulfilling prophecy, because it will only happen if the conservative media and the Republican establishment keep agitating for it. If they get behind the nominee (as they urged others whenever one of them was on the ballot), Trump is assured a base vote of at least 45 percent. He needs to add only five points, and there are certainly more than enough disaffected white Democrats and democratic-leaning independents in the country.

    A recent poll put the number of Sanders voters who preferred Trump to Clinton at 7%, but a lot more said they were unsure or had no preference. They are winnable. Also, there are still quite a few moderate to conservative white Democrats who prefer Hillary to Sanders because he is too liberal, but who will not necessarily vote for her in the general election. All in all I would expect up to 15% D-to-R crossover if Trump is the nominee. If the R-to-D crossover is significantly less, then Trump will indeed be elected President.

    • I doubt the Republicans would abandon Trump even if the open hostility were to continue (which it won’t) after the nomination.
      The more the establishment demonises Trump, the more votes he gets.
      A revolution is ongoing. The old order is the problem, not the beacon.

  4. There is a nice interactive tool that really helps getting a feeling for how the racial and education demographics affect the presidential election. It is striking how much even a slight increase in turnout combined with an increase of the Republican share of the white vote could accomplish in terms of the electoral college.

    [link follows in next post]

    If you reduce the Black turnout and vote share to pre-Obama levels, which is not unreasonable, and increase the white non-college educated turnout by ten percent (which is still ten points below college-educated whites), you have a split election. If Republicans win 64 instead of 62% of that group, they already win the election without winning over a single Hispanic, Asian or Black voter.

    But there are a lot of Hispanic [and Black] working class voters who do not necessarily share the elites’ love of illegal immigration and globalism, so there is room to improve on Romney’s dismal showing among Hispanics. If that actually happens, you are quickly looking at a landslide.

    • Thanks for the link. I will play a bit with that.

      It appears evident to me that Romney has failed abysmally with the alleged core of the Republican electorate (Whites; particularly White males). Trump appears to have all the cards to reverse this.


  5. spot on

  6. Hillary will be in jail or be defeated badly by Trump.

    • I think the second rather than the first.
      This morning I have read of another “prediction” that Hillary will “easily” defeat Trump.

      In the meantime, Trump won Arizona without even sweating, and with Rubio out of the race.

      How many pundits were predicting this?


  7. Go Trump ! I am delighted that so many people are tired of the PC bullshit.

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