As Brexit completely dominates the news here, I thought I would make a couple of Frexit scenarios.
Make no mistake, we'll have Frexit one day. We only don't know when, and what damage will be done in the meantime. However and as they once told us at university: certus an, incertus quando, or “certain if, uncertain when”. I can see the following Frexit scenarios:
First scenario: the Cardinals finally read the job description and start criticising the Pope as a darn Castroite nutter with no faith, no shame, no clue, and no brain. He is peeved and, in an attack of rage, resigns. Probability: extremely low.
Second scenario: in the silence of the Cardinals, the Bishops organise a massive revolt. Generous donors allow a council in some friendly Country (Poland, Hungary). The Pope is deposed as heretic. He is put in front of the choice between resignation and schism, and he chooses resignation because he has always avoided a fight where he wasn't the bully. Probability: makes the first scenario sound likely.
Third scenario: Francis stages an elopement with – as it would turn out – the lurv of his life: Tucho Fagnandez, or Monsignor Ricchione come to mind. The Pope resigns. The world is astonished. The couple is happy. Who are we to judge? Probability: ask Tucho Fagnandez.
Fourth scenario: Francis gets bored of Rome. He is fed up with all those unbearable couple who are, actually, married (“or so they think”, he says to himself), people who actually pray the rosary, clerics who actually believe in God. He decides to go back to the Buenos Aires slums; where the priests stink of sheep and male prostitutes, people aren't married but hey, they have fidelity, and everyone praises him when he says he doubts the existence of God. Probability: barely existent.
Fifth scenario: Francis is caught in a “gay sauna”. His explanation that he wants to lose weight is enthusiastically accepted by the Pollyannas, but fails to persuade everyone else. He chooses to resign. Then announces he will move to Cuba, where Raoul Castro will teach him Catholicism. Probability: honestly, I don't want to know.
Sixt scenario: Francis gets a stroke, and his tongue remains paralysed. No one understands what he says on the aeroplane, so there can be no scandal headlines. Francis is utterly peeved. He resigns and moves back to his Jesuit seminary, where he can smoke dope with the three remaining seminarians and force them to listen to him for hours on end. Probability: let's not put limits to Providence.
Seventh scenario: Francis receives a visit from the Grim Reaper, and his soul is brought to the destination appointed for it from all eternity. He does not need to resign. Probability: very high.
There. I have my Frexit scenarios.
One will be allowed to dream once in a while.