The “Shy Tory Effect”: Why This Race Is Trump’s To Lose

Every Englishman knows the “shy Tory effect”: there are appreciably less people willing to declare their support for the (once) Conservative party than those who then, in the secret of the ballot box, vote for them. 1992 and 2015 were particularly strong examples of this. Another rather impressive example was the recent Brexit referendum, clearly showing (again) that when the BBC and the other media demonise or clearly disfavour one side this cowed a number of people to silence in the polls, who then provide the “surprise” on the day of election; leaving the bullying mass media to spend an ocean of words on why their own intimidation did not work as expected in the end.

Donald Trump has systematically outperformed the forecasts in the Primaries. There is no reason to believe the same is not happening in November. The strange way some American polling institutions conduct their polls reinforces this: if you call at 10:00 am in the middle of a crowded office everyone will be listening, full of excitement. Not easy to shout “make America Great again!”, at least not for some. Then there are the pollster who call private homes and ask to talk to the “youngest registered voter in the household”, thus clearly and willingly prefabricating the Hillary advantage, which will make good headlines for a day but will motivate even more “shy Trumpers” to go to vote.

I do not think the effect is secundary. I think it's huge. The Conservative victory in 2015 took absolutely everyone by surprise. Why? Because the liberal faggot machine has trumpeted itself so much, that it was in shock at being contradicted by reality. The same is happening in the US, where everything seems to indicate when the polls say “too close to call” this means “clear Republican victory”, and when they say “Clinton 5 points ahead” they really mean “the bitch might have a real chance”. And I am talking of the halfway serious pollsters here. Apparently there are pollsters out there who make national polls interviewing 4, 5 or 7% more registered Democrats than Republicans, when Gallup state they are at 28% each nationwide. Someone is cheating big time here, and it is clear that most “independent” polls have be on just another instrument of very dependent electoral propaganda.

Add to this that the Libertarians tend to hover around 7% whilst the Greencucks are down at 2 or 3%. We all know these numbers tend to reduce drastically as the moment of truth approaches. I concede a number of Greens will vote Crooklary, but I can also imagine many will just stay home out of sheer hatred for Crooklary. On the contrary, it is easier to imagine Trump will bag more Libertarian votes than Crooklary, and I smile at reading all those pundits who say “white and educated = Crooklary”. Poppycock. This is just the kind of people who shows, in their majority, a rather long finger to the Clinton machine.

I should, therefore, be very optimistic, almost euphoric. Still, I can't go beyond a cautious optimism.

Trump is prone to errors, and due to his “double down” instinct he is likely to amplify any error. He has played well in the last weeks (I loved the entire Mexico-Wall affair), but again it is only a matter of time before the next big blunder enters the scene. Has Trump learned to keep himself under control? To an extent, probably yes. Will it be enough? Hopefully yes. Will he avoid further blunders? Don't bet your pint.

Still, the “shy Trumper” effect is there. All indicators show a higher motivation among Trump voters. Trump also fares better among the independent and the older segments of the electorate, showing that he has the key to victory already in his hands if he uses it properly. He even appears to make inroads among Black Christians, and he will clearly clean up among veterans and soldiers. On the other side, Crooklary must mobilise the Black vote, but she isn't black, actually not even “tanned”: she is the very embodiment of the so-called White Privilege the Blacks are taught to hate by people like her. Those who hope in a mobilisation of the Black voters akin to the Mulatto races in 2008 and 2012 will be, methinks, bitterly disappointed.

Then there are the debates, where I suspect Trump will pulverise the woman, after which all major network will declare her the winner, and him a bully. Again, I doubt this will impress many. I think Trump will gain another point or two from the debates alone.

Please, Lord, guard the man's tongue, and spare us from a major catastrophe end-October.

We need a Christian West.

We need Crooklary as little as she needs Monica.


Posted on September 8, 2016, in Catholicism, Conservative Catholicism, Traditional Catholicism and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink. 11 Comments.

  1. I can not wait for the debates. It will be so much fun 🙂

  2. …And then there are the outright crooked, false polls, backed by Soros! The “state-run” media is coming down hard on Trump. They are probably paid well, 30 pieces of silver to lie & sell out their Uncle Sam, (also known as America).
    Confound those evil doers, ie. the fake news reporters, the slimy politicians, & the other sell outs & wicked ones.
    Heaven help Trump & keep him safe. God bless Trump. God bless America.

  3. Problem with this analysis is that while I think the race will be closer than what people are predicting the electoral college sadly makes it likely a Hilary victory is likely. Trump excels in the small states but Hillary leads by massive margins in states like California which have large electoral votes.
    To me that’s Hillarys biggest advantage

  4. Excellent Mundabor. Agree completely. My guess is the ‘closet Trumpers’ represent 4-5%. You suggest there might be a Trump eruption before the election but I guess the Democrats are more concerned about Hillary’s great ability to turn folks off, another bad news dump, or a coughing fit during the debates.

    • Can’t see how she can avoid the coughing fits live. But I also think during the debate Trumps’ natural mastery of the medium will bring a further advantage.

  5. That a majority of “catholics” will indeed vote for She Who is the Master of Huma speaks to the reality of just how despicably and desperately fallen is the Western World. And “men” such as Chaput bellow and spew their gaseous cowardice with an acutely relativistic manner, taking no stand against the greater evils of our time.

    While the now-discredited heresy of Americanism (if you have to “Make America Great Again” then the effectiveness of the philosophy behind Americanism is as burdened in practical failure as is our National Debt) was the motivator behind the commonly accepted mythology that “America is the world’s last refuge and stand against evil”, it did serve a fundamentally pragmatic purpose by proposing that Americans were largely a homogeneous people united in its naïve and simplistic Christian faith and opposed to evil. And, historically, the reality is that American blood was spilled – mostly in the rescue of Europe from its own sins – to stave off those existential threats such as Nazism and Japanese Imperialistic impulses.

    America is no longer even remotely capable of proffering to the world an inherent and abundantly generous goodness for which it was once known: evil has so corrupted the land that its people are a weakened and spiritually bereft skeleton of its former body politic

    Satan prefers to confuse humans and does so in our time by allowing many to believe that our problems are political and can be resolved with just the right twist and mix of person and policy. The evil cabal of Merkel, Blair, Clintons, Soros & Bushes created the very environment that bore fruit in Bergoglio and Obama; the living proof that evil can only breed greater evil.

    America’s – and the World’s – dilemma is of a spiritual nature as the days of Noah have returned with an obstinate and determined vengeance, making Sodom and Gomorrah out to be mere pikers in the Tourney of Sin. The dual competing memes of Trump is the last Great White Hope versus If Hillary is Elected Then We Are Doomed – while both likely true – both miss the mark.

    The tragedy of our days is that the earthly Church and Body of Christ is rudderless and vacant of human leadership. The heavy lifting required for saving souls – especially our own – is on the lips and fingertips of the Rosaries of the humiliated and institutionally-isolated common orthodox follower of Jesus. Today, we can only rely upon the Sacraments left to us by Jesus Himself as we have been abandoned by all manner of Pope, Cardinal and Bishop – modern Judases all – who have fled their duties in favour of worldly recognition and recompense.

    Christ is today crucified anew, the world burns in sinful misery and Nero Peter dallies about concerning himself with my rubbish bin and Msgr. Ricca’s dignity.

  6. Just saw this video now – where a medical doctor discusses Hillary Clinton’s health. It’s revealing, and I think more Americans should see it.


  7. I don’t know if any bipartisan system of any nation one party ever had three consecutive presidential terms. So Hellary is a chosen one!

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