Daily Archives: September 16, 2016
I follow the polls about Trump & Crooked Hillary almost every day. I must have written already about the obvious bias of many pollsters (typical ways of distorting a poll: asking to speak to the youngest registered voter in the household, and interviewing more registered Democrats than Republicans when nationwide they are on par). I have also written about the “shy Tory effect”, which has been massive during the Primaries and has certainly not vanished in thin air.
Notwithstanding all this, Trump is gaining ground. Not only he is advancing nationally, but he appears increasingly stronger in Florida and Ohio, with states like Nevada apparently now within reach. I am eagerly awaiting for good news from Pennsylvania, where the “shy Tory effect” might be particularly strong because of the composition of the electorate.
I see two elements of danger now: the first is that Trump might soon give us the next blunder (how long without one now, four weeks?), and the second is that the Libertarian voters would appear to lean for Clinton more than for Trump. If confirmed at the polling station this would be bad news, albeit I can’t imagine Clinton really cleaning up among them. And no, I do not think many will vote for alternative candidates; in my eyes, it will be like almost always and most supporters of alternative candidates will end up choosing reality and voting Trump or Clinton in the end.
On the other hand, Crooked Hillary can still self-destroy in a variety of ways: each one of a) further health problems, b) being truly and well beaten by Trump in televised debates and c) being further compromised by Wikileaks revelation could destroy her campaign. She can also help us herself with some other unexpected gift like d) the one with the “Deplorables” (keep pounding on this, dear readers!).
We shall see.
Pray for sound voters, and pray for Donald Trump, that he may bring this to a happy end without too many blunders.
And don’t be a Sanctimonious Judas.