Yesterday’s Polls

It is revealing that in the middle if this electoral campaign, when polls are attentively followed and part of the political controversy, no one tells you an elementary truth: that even when the polls are done honestly, they become less and less reliable as the electorate becomes more and more unpredictable. Plus, the pollsters are reluctant in telling you today how utterly useless their polls of yesterday were.

Remember the Primary season? Every poll gave Trump as absolutely trounced by Crooked Dyke Hitlery Clinton for as long as Ted “Judas” Cruz was part of the race. As soon as Trump became the real, official alternative to Clinton, things began to change fast.

Every sound thinking person could have told you that this would happen, but the polls actually never did. It was mere sound reasoning, denied by the polls and confirmed by reality.

But the issue is a far more general one. The British electorate gives the Tories a stunning victory in 2015, a victory no one has seen coming in this way. Even more relevantly, the epochal meltdown of the LibFags was completely unexpected. All that polling showed a total inability to see even some vague trace of the earthquake that was preparing.

Then there is the Brexit saga. A pollster working for the Tories had given a last projection indicating “Remain” 10 (ten) points ahead. Cameron was told it might be better to go to bed early in order to be fresh and rosy the following morning when announcing his great victory to the breakfasting nation. We know how that went.

Does anyone remind you of that? Can we see, now, all the much-publicised polls giving Trump as a hopeless loser against Hitlery? What were they for, if not for demoralising the Trump followers and inducing them to pick another horse?

You know what? People don't care for polls anymore. They can follow them passionately as game, as entertainment. But they don't base their decision on what the polls say. The Trump followers will not stay at home even if every poll were to give Trump ten points behind. The Clinton followers are difficult to mobilise as it is, and this will be made only slightly more difficult if the polls give her three or more points ahead.

Reality will simply catch up with the polls, and very possibly show once again how unreliable they have become.

Particularly so, when they have political bias built in as a feature.

M

 

Posted on October 21, 2016, in Catholicism, Conservative Catholicism, Traditional Catholicism and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink. 6 Comments.

  1. Something worth while to watch. CBS is reporting on Hillary’s WikiLeaks emails. This is new. It could be the beginning of the end if the other networks start reporting it.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hacked-emails-show-clinton-pushed-for-charity-meeting-in-morocco/

  2. M, I’m not sure how much you know about American history but this sort of thing has happened before.

    “Dewey Defeats Truman” — Chicago Tribune headline from 1948

    I hope Trump wins so Mark Shea can get apoplectic. Yes, I enjoy a bit of Schadenfreude now and then….

    • I was thinking of Truman just yesterday. That was a big surprise. And again,, surprises have become more common in the recent past as the voters get less predictable and the pollsters more biased…

    • That is a classic! Also don’t forget just before the election the polls also had Reagan down by I think by double didgets in the polls behind Carter. Fortunately we all woke up the day after the election with a Reagan landslide victory. In this case I pray history will repeat!

  3. Get a load of this:

    The English bishop William Kenney is a key figure in the official Catholic-Lutheran dialogue, and will be with Pope Francis in Sweden at the end of the month. He believes unity is a matter of decades away, and it’s very possible that Francis may use the trip to make a gesture on inter-communion.

    https://cruxnow.com/interviews/2016/10/21/pope-sweden-break-ground-inter-communion-bishop-says/

    Excerpt:
    The consensus of the 1999 document on justification stated, if I’ve understood it correctly, that the reasons for the Catholics condemning the Protestant positions and vice-versa no longer hold, and if ever each Church did hold the position that the other said they did, what is now true is that neither Church no longer holds that position. In other words, the Reformation was all a big misunderstanding!

    I think it’s very important that people know that the Reformation was a great misunderstanding, we all got it wrong, on both sides, and we’ve lifted excommunications and condemnations and apologized. So we can all be friends.

    Of course, you’ll find certain Catholics and certain Lutherans still claiming the other holds those positions, but they are not representative of the mainstream positions of the Churches. The document was approved by Rome, which binds Catholics whether they like it or not; the Lutherans are made up of about 100 churches, and there were about 37 who didn’t, back then, sign up to it. Some have come into line since.

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