Polls: Reality Is Catching Up With The Lies.

Yours truly observes the reality on the ground: the absolutely massive crowds for Trump, and the huge enthusiasm they show, compared with the dismal number of activists recruited in some way by Crooked Lesbian Hitlery Clinton and that pathetic veep candidate of hers. Hitlery herself can’t even be seen around, either because of her failing health or because she hates common people, or both.

You would think Trump is on its way to a landslide.

But then you read polls giving Hitlery in front up to 12 percent, and you wonder whether the polls are wrong, or reality.

My bet is on the polls.

I have read around Gallup gave Carter some 8 points in front one week or so before the 1980 election, when Reagan galloped all over Carter with his trusted horse, twice. You see, polls could be massively wrong even when the electorate was far more predictable, and the pollsters certainly less biased than in this absolutely scandalous,obscenely Bulgarian year.

This year, most MSM and their subservient pollsters are doing exactly what John Podesta asked them to do: oversample Democrats, women, young voters and minorities and hey presto, your “it’s over” narrative it’s cooked and served. Alas, it seems to me we have to do here with a bunch of people who are either trying to curry favours with their own editors and owners, or else too stupid to realise that voters read the polls, but they don’t believe them.

Then we have the facts, and the facts are already starting to tell a different tale: Florida early voting numbers per 10/25 already indicate that some 0.5% registered Republicans more than registered Democrats have used either the postal or the early vote option. This would be very good news in itself, but it’s even better if you consider the following:

Polls have consistently indicated that Trump is getting more votes from registered Democrats than Hitlery from effeminate RINOs. Therefore, you must increase the lead.

Trump is generally believed to get more votes among Independents. Add here another percentage point or two, at the least.

Democrats have traditionally used early vote as a way to mobilise their otherwise “too lazy to move my fat ass” electorate. It is not working this year. Watch Trump’s advantage increase at the end of the ballot period, as more Whites and more Independents go to the polls.

It seems a common observation that not only less Blacks are voting, but less of them are voting Democrat. Even the vastly oversampled, biased polls of the likes of Bloomberg cannot avoid telling the tale: Blacks will be voting for Hitlery in their Sixties or Seventies percent; she need at the very least Ninety plus to have a hope, and she is still in trouble because it will be 90% of less than it used to be in the times of the Gay Mulatto. Is it not reasonable to assume that among the very registered Democrats who vote in Florida and elsewhere there will be a number of people who have voted Trump, but prefer not to say it because of their prevalently Democratic environment?

However you put it, though – and it’s admittedly early days – the Florida figures already show a vastly different reality than the done Hitlery deal spread by the worst pollsters only one week ago. The figures show a vast alignment to somewhere between a tight race with perceivable Trump advantage and a possible Trump landslide. Good luck motivating to vote your fat ass handout recipients in the last days, Hitlery.

I am now guessing that predictions of a “tight race” will become more common in the next days. No pollster, no matter how much sold out to Hitlery, wants to be caught with his trousers full of Obama when Election Day comes. They will have to adjust their polls to the reality on the ground, or face loss of business next time.

Reality is catching up with the lies, fast.

M

Posted on October 26, 2016, in Traditional Catholicism. Bookmark the permalink. 11 Comments.

  1. There seem to be three clusters of polls. Those who see a close race (Rasmussen, IBD, the LA Times poll etc.), those who see Clinton ahead by a few points (most others) and those who have been taken inside the Clinton campaign Headquarters.

    The first cluster consists mostly of polls using online panels or robocalls. That is, polls with no live interviewer, therefore less social pressure for respondents to give the “right” and “socially expected” answer. In the Brexit referendum, these tended to show a close race or a narrow lead for Leave, just like they are close today.

    The second consists mostly of polls using a live interviewer methodology. They have a generally slightly better track record, but are very vulnerable to any sort of “shy voter” effect, because voters have to tell a live person that they vote for the “wrong” and “socially undesirable” candidate. In the Brexit referendum, these showed a narrow, but stable Remain victory, just like they show a narrow, but stable Clinton lead today.

    The third consists mostly of utterly biased media polls. We can probably discount them safely. In the Brexit referendum, those showed unrealistic leads for Remain.

    In a normal election, the second cluster would likely be closest to the actual result, but as we have seen in recent years (especially in the Brexit referendum), online panel and robopolls have a superior ability to pick up the “politically incorrect” vote, despite being otherwise methodologically somewhat inferior.

    I do not doubt that turnout of white working class voters will increase compared to 2012. But by how much? If we compare the relevant turnout numbers, we find that at the last British General Election, white working class turnout levels were TWENTY percentage points below average, but in the Brexit vote, they were almost exactly average. That is, they increased by TWENTY points compared to other groups.

    If – and only if – Trump gets this kind of turnout, he will be the next President. Will he? I have no idea. It depends on how many of them can be discouraged from voting by baseless accusations, irrelevancies and propaganda.

    • If 20-25% of Blacks and 25-30% of Latinos vote for her, Hillary is so screwed she will think she is Miley Cyrus.

    • Blacks will vote at least 90% for the Democrat as they have always done. Their turnout might drop slightly, but in general, they do not need to vote themselves, they can have their democrat handlers do it for them. Remember, Blacks in swing states live mostly in inner cities controlled by the democrat machine. Also, they vote reliably for the candidate who promises them more handouts, supports them looting their own cities/districts as punishment for “white racism”, and tolerates killing police.

      If they voted in their own political interest, they would vote for the strongest law-and-order, anti-crime, pro-police, anti-drugs, pro-family candidate available. They would support school vouchers allowing their children to escape the disastrous inner-city government schools etc. That is, they would vote Republican about as strongly as Mormons and Evangelicals used to do. But unfortunately they don’t and Trump will not be able to change it.

      I hope I will be proven wrong, but I doubt it. Latinos may respond slightly better to Trump than most expect. They do not vote as a bloc and some of them might be convinced by Trump’s economic/trade message. 30% Hispanic vote for Trump is realistic and would be a slight improvement over Romney and McCain.

    • I think you are too pessimistic. Firstly, black depending on handouts

    • … Aren’t so many, but also, what a black voter does in the secret of the ballot can’t be discovered.
      A lot of them hate that bitch.

    • “I think you are too pessimistic”
      That’s what you always say…😉
      Sometimes you are right, sometimes not. I hope reality will prove me wrong this time. Even Reagan failed at breaking 10% with Blacks, however…

  2. I think the last dirty trick of the opposition is to demoralize Donald Trump’s supporters by using fake polls. Only a couple of pollsters show a close race. One of them, the Rasmussen poll, correctly predicted Obamass’ elections in 2008 and 2012. In my neighborhood, there are many Trump/Pence signs on the lawns and in the countryside, but I haven’t seen one HilLIARy/Cain sign. Granted, this is central California which is not a liberal bastion like L.A or San Fran, but it does indicate the level of Trump support by the middle-class. I and three of my relatives have already voted for him by mail. May God grant us a miracle for a Trump victory. It won’t solve all of our problems, but this country will go down in a death spiral if the she-devil gets to plop herself behind the desk of the Oval Office.

  3. Many registered democrats will vote for Trump, according to an interview to Your Voice Radio (Bill Mitchell) given few days ago by Trump Campaign Diversity Manager Brunell Donald-Kyei, a superbly intelligent black woman who was herself a Democrat until this current election. This is another reason why polls seem so unreal compared to what we’re actually seeing.

  4. I live in upstate NY. There are tons of Trump signs. I do not think I have seen one Hillary sign. Too bad we still have this phony “electorate” voting. My state has already been decided for the Dems (because of liberal NYC). If Hillary wins, we are all so screwed in this country…and most of the sheeple don’t even realize it. Have you thought about doing a commentary on US voter fraud? It is scary and disheartening. I have seen some things on youtube that have me very concerned.

    • I don’t live in the US. It is very difficult for me to gauge the scale of the phenomenon. That it exists, I have no doubts.
      I was reading yesterday from a father with a retarded son calling him on Election Day, when people visited his institute and telling everyone we now go and vote for Obama. The father called his solicitor, the project was aborted.
      Yes, they are such reptiles as that.

  5. I think that Trump will win a historic landslide based on the number of people at his rallies. I don’t read the MSM or listen to the polls but I do see the enthusiasm for this man that I have never witnessed before for any candidate. The Left is scared but they are also delusional and refuse to see the truth. Here is a link to an interesting article about the Trump phenomena in Florida. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/30/nyt-florida-poll-showcases-pending-trump-landslide-victory/

    This site has all sorts of articles and links to all of Trump’s rallies. It talks about how the media has been gas lighting the public with their lies about Hitlery’s popularity. Well the end is near and they are in a panic now. Time to take out the trash and drain the swamp.

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