Daily Archives: July 10, 2018
You wouldn’t want to be Chuck Schumer right now. I mean, you wouldn’t want to be Chuck Schumer ever, but particularly now.
Let us play the scenarios here.
1. Schumer launches a savage fight against Kavanaugh, and manages to block his appointment. This enrages the MAGA people, and he wakes up after the Mid-Term with three or five Senators lost. After which, Trump proceeds to box in either Kavanaugh himself, or someone else more conservative than him. Plus, the increased majority puts Trump in an excellent position if RBG or Breyer die or resign in the next two years.
2. Schumer launches a savage fight against Kavanaugh, and loses it. He probably still loses several Senators in November, and he shows that he cannot stop Trump’s appointments anyway. The Dems zealots lead to more #walkaway.
3. Schumer decides not to play hardball on Kavanaugh, who gets appointed without savage fight. He limits the loss of senators in November, but he only manages defeat. The activists on his grassroots drift more and more into socialist positions.
4. Schumer decides to put on a fake fight and achieve that Kavanaugh is confirmed within, say, August. He tries to keep the Supreme Court as far away from November as possible, then plays his cards on other leftist issues that are not linked to abortion or second amendment. Thus, he keeps his endangered Senators as far away from the line of fire as he can; but this comes at the price of waving a big white flag.
I do not see any other scenarios, and think the first two the most probable. If any of them come to pass , we will com out of the battle stronger. In fact, 54 or even 55 Republican senators will make the death of Roe vs Wade more probable in time.
Join me in wishing RBG (age), Sotomayor (diabetes) and Breyer (age) a long and happy retirement and, hopefully, conversion.
But honestly, this Trump train is now running at full speed and it won’t be easy to stop it.