Daily Archives: February 20, 2020
There is a thought that has been floating in my head for years. Today, I would like to share it with you, and ask what you think.
It has been my experience all my life that people who are disillusioned with something -like, say, elections- are not easily persuaded to abandon their scepticism. They will want to, first, be persuaded by facts without them doing anything; and they will, once confronted with facts, change their minds and act accordingly.
It is my conviction that, by all his success, exactly this happened to Trump during his glorious 2016 run. He did move to action a number of people who had been disillusioned and had not voted for a long time; but – crucially – the numbers were relatively minor if compared to the untapped potential that still remained after the election.
I remember thinking, in the early hours of that glorious day, that a victory in 2016 would go a very long way to procure a victory in 2020, because the great mass of “doubting Thomases” would be aroused to action and to support Trump exactly where it counted – and will count in November – the most: that is, among the formerly disillusioned non-college educated voters in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.
Do not expect these voters to march to the polling station in November because they are against abortion, or think a wall indispensable, or like Trump’s North Korean policy. Expect them to go to vote in November because, for the first time since Reagan, someone really cared for their jobs and families, and they have tangible evidence of it.
Granted, many eternally disaffected and professional complainers will still stay home instead of going out in the cold, as complaining is likely what they do best and hat gives them most satisfaction in life. Still, I think that there is a big army, a huge, still untapped potential out there, particularly in the Rust Belt, ready to join the Trump Train in November. The polling organisations will, like in 2016, not be able to detect them, because these are not people getting vocal on social media or interested in talking to pollsters; but their votes will be real and, I think, largely unexpected again.
This, unless grumpy guys in the Rust Belt are different from the same guys in Italy; which I very much doubt, because nature does not change with the passport.
I do not see these people polled. I do not think many pundits are interested in them. I suspect that they think that Trump will have difficulties in keeping that constituency, much less enlarge it. But I at my age might know more of human nature than a 24 years old analyst of artificial statistical data; particularly then, when such analyst is afraid to see the signals he has in front of him.
If what I think happens, then it’s game over for Bloomberg, Sanders, or whoever else should make it. It will be a big win, and a lot more liberal tears.
The Lord acts in mysterious ways, and He might choose to let factory workers pave the way for everything the “educated” urban crowd hates.
Starting with sensible judges, and babies in the womb.