Please, Please Lord! Today’s Figures From Italy Show A Clear Improvement
It is only one day, but the news from Italy are extremely encouraging.
If this continues in the next few days, it will be clear that the summit has been touched, and the virus is receding. For the record, today could have been the first day with more than 1,000 dead. Yesterday, the rolling 24 hours figures was 793. Today, we are at 651. Clear decrease in Lombardy, too, from 546 to 361 deaths. New cases also clearly retreating.
Some considerations on the spot:
- Lombardy was at the forefront. The data from there is the most followed, but it is easy to predict that even if the figures for Lombardy go down in the next days, those for other regions (like Emilia) might grow for a while. Still, Lombardy is no China and I believe the data. If the death recede there, they will soon recede everywhere in Italy.
- Please do not say that “this was not a great crisis after all”. Look on the internet for explanations of the effect, compounded for 30 days, of every infected person infecting 1 or 1.25 people as opposed to, say, 2.5. It is staggering, as you would expect for an exponential growth. This means that: a) social distancing saved a lot of lives, and b) China lied, people died.
- We will know in the next months (assuming the crisis has peaked already) what estimated effect the measures taken in different countries have fared. For example: how did the Dutch and the Swedes (after accounting for differences in population age and climate, as far as they can be estimated) fare compared to, say, Italy and France? This will give extremely valuable indications as to how to proceed for similar new cases.
- China will have to pay. Firstly, they should be made to pay for the immense damage the inefficiency, corruption and outright stupidity of the Chicom machine has caused to the West (I think tariffs will be ideal for that). Secondly, they should have to pay through the repatriation of many important strategic industries, from which the Western machine clearly depends, both to keep producing and for the safety of the Western citizen. Thirdly, they should have to pay through sanctions like the expulsion from the WTO and the loss of the “most favorite” trade clause, as a corrupt third world government does not deserve to be given a seat in the first row.
- All Western nations will have to provide for contingency plans, and adapt their production chain to the new circumstances. For example, it is easy to predict that the “just in time” production methods will get quite a hit after the experiences of the last weeks. It may be cheaper in normal times, it becomes extremely expensive in abnormal ones. Many factories were closing already, in the last days, not because the government ordered them to, but for sheer lack of parts.
I suggest my readers that they pray very hard, today, for the virus to be finally receding.