Strange Days

The Italian Chinese Virus figures for Monday were very encouraging. The ones for Tuesday were a bit of a downer. Still, it appears more and more probable that the worst phase is now gone; even as the deaths increase in other regions of Italy, we can now reasonably say that this is because they are going through a peak that will last a week or two, certainly not months.

Some images I would like my readers to mind: the churches used as provisional deposit for corpses as the morgues became too full,   and the column of Army trucks transporting the corpses out of Bergamo.  If you think this was a hoax, or a fraud, I have a bridge I would like to sell you.

The Centre Left is in power in Italy. They don’t want to commit political suicide any more than Trump.

Possibly the worst, for every local, must have been seeing the obituaries of the Eco di Bergamo gradually go from around one to nine, then ten, then eleven pages. Imagine being a local and seeing the amount of devastation created by this virus; as you see, among the dead, people you knew personally, or whom people you know knew. Old people die every day, of course; but when the obituaries go from one page to eleven, it is not old age, or a cold end of the winter.

It is also abundantly obvious that the victims of the Chinese Virus are way, way more than the official count, likely a multiple. The fact is, the official data only consider as deaths from the virus those who had a test made on them, whether alive or dead. But there were not enough tests to use thousands of them on people already dead, as they are vital to prevent the further spread of the disease.

At some point, we will have at least an official estimate; and it will make for sober reading. The more so, if we think of what could have happened if the virus had not been contained in our Countries. Conversely, this will lead us to think to how many lives could have been spared if the Chinese officials had been not so unspeakably stupid, corrupt and, in a word, communist.

China lied, people died.

Still, and irrespective of the official count in the end, the following is crystal clear:

1. the victims were largely very old and with preexisting conditions, and

2. we can’t kill an entire Country because of a virus.

As always, President Trump was the first, among the heads of state and government who are actually listened to, to say it out loud: the cure can’t be worse than the disease. This is particularly brave of Trump, as everybody knows that the number of deaths in the United States is going to increase in the next days, thus forcing him to make difficult, but sensible choices as the screaming of the rabid left (who would be happy to gravely damage the economy in order to have him lose in November; journalists’ jobs are not endangered anyway, at least for now) increases in intensity.

There must be a balance, and the balance must be found in the weighting of human charity and common sense. Again, the effort must be directed at the end (the isolation of the old and the preparation for the emergency in the hospitals: respirators, ventilators, nurses etc), not at the start (the closing of factories, restaurants, and entertainment venues for a long time). The very fabric of every Western Country would start to die and get into gangrene if this situation continues for many weeks, without consideration of the damage made to the underlying economy.

Keep praying, keep hoping and, for heaven’s sake, follow the instructions of your Government.

They don’t want to commit suicide, either.

Posted on March 25, 2020, in Catholicism, Conservative Catholicism, Traditional Catholicism. Bookmark the permalink. 34 Comments.

  1. If we evaluate the official CV death rates so far they lead to the conclusion that Corno V is not significantly worse than a bad flu season. If this is a true fact closing down economies makes no sense. It would help everyone to come together on a agreed solution if the real death rates were made available.

    For example, the Epoch Times had an article the other day that the deaths in China could be as high as 20 million based on a decline in the number of cell phones in use between December and March and aerial pictures of mass burials and burning of bodies.. If we had the true facts we might better reach a consensus of how to respond to CV.

    • I have written about this.
      It’s not about the numbers. It’s about not letting people die without medical assistance.
      There is no doubt this will not be a tragedy like the Spanish Flu.

  2. Journalists can easily work from home. Most of them only express their opinion nowadays anyway and don’t seem to report much.

    The gangrene of Western Society you fear might be the intention for this Chinese Virus. Who would gain? This is the Bolshevik way-create ruin and seize total control in the chaos.

    • However, this cannot happen without our governments wanting it. This is not in the control of the Chinese. The US retaliation will also be severe.

  3. IIRC, you are Italian. Curious…do Italians commonly take Vitamin D supplements? Reason I ask is I’ve been told that folks in the Northern Euro countries where winter seasonal Vitamin D deficiency is commonly known to exist often take Vit D supplements all winter. Just a curiosity about both Spain and Italy, where it appears the death rates are much higher than in Northern Europe. {Possibly this is just timing as well, as a few more weeks may tell}.

    • It is much less common in sun-drenched Italy to take Vitamin D, though children might take it. But clearly this is not a factor here. They say Vitamin C helps, though. Italians get a lot of that (oranges, lemons)

  4. Curious why you say low Vit D is not a factor. Especially northern Italy is at a similar latitude to the upper third portion of contiguous 48 US states and low Vit D has in the past been cited as prevalent in US populations. Indeed, most of the USA gets as much/more sunlight than Italy. Also, I’ve read reports that contradict the assertion that Vit C is helpful {conflicting “studies” always seem to plague crises of this sort}. I see few references to the 16/17 flu season in Italy and 24,981 are estimated to have died then, a massive number likely related to some degree to the aging population.

    • I can safely say that Northern Italy gets a lot more sun than vast parts of England. But still, I don’t see why this should be a factor. If this were the case, England and the Nordic Country would see extremely high death rates.

  5. Statement above was not correct, trying to be concise. Not saying average days of sunlight over most of USA exceeds that of most of Italy, only that there are regions of comparable, and much of USA falls along a similar latitude covered by the north/south oriented Italian “boot”. Just curiosity at work, here.

    • Ah, I have answered below.
      Also as an additional reflection: Scotland, which has a tragic lack of sun days, seems to be faring better than England, albeit we will have to see how this evolves in the next weeks.

  6. Mundabor; check this out and the other related studies on this site. Very interesting. Granted, kids, but… Truth is, most of the elderly I suspect do NOT spend much time in the sun, and sunlight exposure is variable. Studies indicate highly variable results from sunlight exposure-only. I own a ranch {sunlight, anyone?} and along with a family member were tested very low in Vit D and possessed many issues which supplements resolved. Again, curious. also, curious as to how many factors might come together to set up Italy as a beaten zone for this disease; average age, obesity, smoking rate, Vit D deficiency. And of course reporting practices which now are indicated to influence the reporting as well. God-willing, we will get a fix for this…and soon.

    • Ah, now I get you! You mean that these are people who stay at home a lot because they are old!
      It could certainly be!
      I have seen shocking video footage and in fact, many of the people looked like they spend their days on a couch!

  7. “I can safely say that Northern Italy gets a lot more sun than vast parts of England. But still, I don’t see why this should be a factor. If this were the case, England and the Nordic Country would see extremely high death rates.”

    Correct, UNLESS folks in northern Europe routinely take supplements and those in the south do not. For example my friends in Norway tell me they and pretty much everybody take Vit D supplements and have culturally there for many years. Remember, we are also talking about a population concentration of deaths involving the elderly who very likely do not go outside as much. Sunlight and Vit D seem to be highly variable anyway. Other morbidity involves obesity, smoking rates along with elderly and who knows, Vit D deficiency. What I learned with Vit D deficiency is that intuition failed me. My outside exposure was not enough, and apparently is not enough for many. Anyway, God bless and keep your chin up!

  8. “Ah, I have answered below.
    Also as an additional reflection: Scotland, which has a tragic lack of sun days, seems to be faring better than England, albeit we will have to see how this evolves in the next weeks.”

    That’s just Scottish obstinacy. You can always tell a Scot. You just can’t tell them much! 😉 {Your point’s a good one, of course. I wonder if Scots take Vit D to the rate that their eastern neighbors and my cousins in Scandinavia do and English to the south don’t?}

    • Scots take a lot of cigarettes and alcohol.. life expectancy is 10 years lower than in England due to that. I would not be surprised if Coronavirus had much better statistics there, just because there are less old people for it to harvest..

  9. Northern Italy is home to the largest concentration of Chinese nationals in Europe. Maybe this has more to do with the prevalence of the Wuhan virus in Italy than Vitamin D , sunlight or lemons? By the way seems biggest concern for most people is not to mention China in any discussion of the Chinese flu. See column by Ann Coulter

    • I doubt. It’s not that these illegal Chinese people can travel undisturbed, or have the money to fly to Wuhan three times a year.

  10. Mundabor, you say that the US retaliation upon China will be severe. Is this not dependent on Trump’s re-election? We know that China has been very generous to the Biden gang.

    I see economic opportunities if the right course is followed. All countries should now realise that they need to become self-dependent again. They need to become their own manufacturers of essential goods. This insane dependency on China needs to end. Anyway, the cheapness of their goods is more than cancelled by the costs of reduced economic activity in the countries buying them.

    • I think the hard part (tariffs etc) will depend on the extremely probably re-election of Trump. I honestly take this as a very safe assumption, Biden having completely destroyed himself over the last ten days.
      Still, even a Democratic president (like Cuomo, if they pick him in Milwaukee) would take measures to repatriate strategic industries.
      China is going to hurt, big time.

  11. I am shocked to find I can still be surprised by my fellow humans.
    Once again, we discover that not only do we have a crisis to endure, but the response to the crisis adds more drama and angst to the pile.
    Just as I have found it stunning that my fellow Catholics accept an obvious fraud as our pope (once thought apostate, now revealed as totally pagan), it has been pretty appalling to see the reaction to this virus.

    China hid details, but enough bootleg reports and videos were coming out that should have informed the West what was coming. It’s a bad virus, a killer. A virus that makes people drown in their own beds due to copious secretions and infection. The math was simple, not enough beds, not enough ventilators. Governments can count.
    What has been shocking…denial. Now people, even intelligent, well-versed Catholics who may be leading lights in the current Catholic resistance, are not immune to fear and denial. I don’t know what else could explain the people who have been focused on either the economic toll (screw the people…the economy!) or the fear that this is all just a massive Marxist takeover designed to strip you of your Constitutional rights, and you are now a HERO if you see through that and defy it!
    I think this is what is called willfully stupid, and lives could easily be lost by people ignoring the social distancing and quarantining of the public. But they are being ENCOURAGED by leading Catholic lights and others whose motives I have no idea about.
    It must be fear, it has to be. What else could explain such intractable bullheadedness and blindness to the obvious, this virus is causing suffering and taking many lives.

    Seriously, the people ignoring the obvious danger and encouraging others to do the same, I can in no way understand this. And the people yammering about the Mass and how it needs to be carried on with the laity there…God has permitted this time during Lent with virtually no Mass available to the public. The response is massive temper tantrums and stirring up the people who are already full of anxiety to get more stirred up. The Francis Church is no help at all, filled with men who are careerists and materialists. Why are people expecting them to resist closing churches and being surprised when they do? But finally there is something they do I agree with. I understand the Mass must go on, and it does, without the laity.
    Just as with abortion, I truly believe if most supporters observed an abortion, especially of a full-term baby they recognized as a living baby, they would end their support, I believe if these people saying this virus is a “hoax” saw some poor soul gasping for air like a fish, and no ventilator available for them, they would realize what they are saying and stop being irresponsible.
    God help all suffering in any way from this virus.

    • I have some sad considerations on this.
      If you are deluded enough that you can think that Francis is not the Pope, there is no amount of crap you would not believe *just because you want to*.
      Shorter comments please!!

  12. Oakes I apologize for my long comment.

  13. I can’t understand the reasoning of you guys claiming that only the old people die from this virus. Don’t you understand that it is so in the *beginning* while there is still enough respirators for all critical patients? To the old and sick people even respirators can’t help, while to the young people respirators can help. But if the disease spread very quickly, then there wouldn’t be enough respirators for all and then even younger people would die since they wouldn’t get the help of the respirator. Yes, I understand that the life and economy can not stop indefinitely and that the cure can not be worse than the disease, but then we must accept that a lot of people (even younger) will die, that argument about older people just doesn’t hold.

    • I disagree.

      A lot of old people are saved with the ventilators. Most young people do not need them. If this had been the case, Italy would have seen a massacre of young people. This has not happened.

      The number of young people who die is very limited, and it is always connected to pre-existign conditions of a certain gravity, like diabetes, which are fairly rare.

  14. Most young people do not need the ventilators? Yet, the first italian patient was 38 and needed artificial breathing for two or three weeks. Alexandar Tschugguel is in his twenties and also needed hospitalization. Those are the two cases we know because they were publicized, how many are such cases we don’t know? Both these young guys got the hospital treatments, so they recovered. Had they not gotten it, would they recover? I am not sure. Maybe that it the reason we are not seeing many deaths among the younger – they are still getting the respirators. And they might be getting it on the account of the older people, since as early as 8 of March the medics were talking about having to choose whom to treat.

    If that is the truth, and it very well might be since every now and then there is an article mentioning that older than 60 are not given respirators which is then hushed up, that would make the death gap between the younger and the older even bigger, because younger get the ventilator in much greater percentages and they recover in greater percentages.

    • They are outliers. There are outliers in every flu. Every year, young people also die of flu. Most of the people who get ventilators are those “in th emiddle”, their fifties and sixties and seventies. Strong enough to make it, not strong enough not to need it.
      Think of the numbers. The people in intensive care are less than 5% of the infected.

  15. Interesting stuff, here:

    “There were 23,137 deaths between December 2017 and March 2018, according to the National Records of Scotland – the highest figure since 1999/2000.

    It also revealed that the seasonal increase in mortality – the number of “additional” deaths in winter – was 75% greater than in 2016/17.

    The main underlying causes of the deaths were influenza and pneumonia.”

    I’m beginning to wonder if this covid-19 has been around for a lot longer than we think, and that those affected merely got rolled into the statistics of “influenza and pneumonia”. Put another way, we are used to hearing about “Influenza A & B” in the USA each and every winter, but now I wonder if there are other diseases that produce similar killing symptoms but, unlike this year, for lack of demand for specificity in the past were not noted, Flu A & B citations sufficing to describe to origin of symptoms that lay folks low during each and every “flu” season.

    • Oh, this is absolutely right, at least for Italy!

      I read in Italian newspapers that in Bergamo, the number of deaths in January was high enough that the funeral agents alerted the Governments. But there were *no tests for those who died in January*, therefore they did not go into the statistics. Also, there was no containment in place yet.
      Still, we are talking of weeks.

      Scotland might be a different case, at least in part. If a particularly strong winter adds to a particularly nasty flu, I’d say 75% is certainly in the cards. But in Italy we are talking 200% increase in January, and around 1000% increase now.

  16. I wonder what the actual death per week rate has been in Italy this flu season. Using the number from the site linked above for the 4 recent years, I get 17017 deaths for flu average per year. That translates into about 1063 deaths per week EXCEPT we know that such an even spread does not occur. The period of time of peak deaths must see significantly higher deaths per week, and correspondingly fewer at the beginning and tail of the season. So let’s assume maybe 1500-2000 deaths at peak weeks. Also, the quote from the Italian Health Department medical adviser Dr Ricciardi stated that about 12% were deaths involving covid-19 alone. So one might legitimately ask what is really going on here. At this point, we wait and see what the final death toll is, but from the looks of it, it may very well {flu and covid} fall below a really bad Italian flu season alone. Not sure at this point.

    • You have two wrong assumptions.
      Firstly, I have published the data of this year compared to the other years. We are talking of ten times more in places like Bergamo. So no, it’s not that people are imagining.
      Secondly, it is absolutely pacific that Coronavirus, alone, does not kill (more than a normal flu). This is a false flag. Again, I have explained this many times.
      Besides, 52 doctors have already died of Coronavirus. You can’t explain that with the flu.
      This will be a very nasty episode, known for harvesting an awful lot of people. And we just can’t have death panels to deal with it, for the sale of 1% of GDP.

  17. I do not mean to say cv19 DOES NOT kill by itself. I’m also not saying that the numbers for cv19 are not additive {tho I do wonder how long it has been around and if it is possible it was a contributing factor to flu deaths in years gone by, yet undiagnosed}.

    What I’m saying is that in the end, combining the dead from cv19 w/ the total dead for flu in Italy this year, may result in a number in line with the 68,000 total dead caused by flu over the 4 study years.

    Some have gone down the wrong path in saying CV19 is a fraud/hoax, etc. However, what we don’t know yet are the final tallies and the extent of cv19 infection. The former will give us some idea as to how the year in total will look compared to other winter illness seasons and the latter will inform of just what the death rate is. Dr Fauci has stated now in the NEJM that as the numbers roll in,the death rate may in fact, at least in the USA, approach that of the flu.

    • Oh, I think that by us it will not bo too far away from that, either. If you consider 60k a bad case scenario, at 30k we are at bad year flu level for a country like Italy. However, the people who normally die for the flu are people for which it is not possible to do anything. Here, it would be many cases of “you will have to die because we have no ICU for you”. This has been the tragedy from the start: death panels, stuff like that. It is to avoid this that all this is happening, irrespective of how the final tally will be.
      But in the end, it will not be the plague and it will not be a walk in the park. It is bad enough that it makes the shutdown necessary (for some weeks), nothing can be bad enough that justifies destroying the country.

      The fraud/hoax people should visit Bergamo. They would be cured instantly.

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