Coronavirus: Let’s Get Real.

The figures for Italy released this afternoon aren’t good, with more than 900 deaths in a day, and the new record.  

Before you freak out, reflect that these daily numbers don’t mean much anyway, which you know because you actually read my blog.

At this point, I would like to make a very worst case, a  realistic worse case, and a comparison with data we have.

As you know from here, the Diamond Princess saw the worst possible incubation scenario, and was full of old people, who were going around for many days within the vessel and being happily infected without even knowing it.

The figures again:

3,711 passengers

712 infected;

7 deaths.

Total death after weeks in the vessel of hell: 0.188%

Let us apply this to the, say, 60 million Italians and we have 112,800 deaths due to Coronavirus.

However, the Diamond Princess is, most certainly, not representative of Italy: firstly, because it was a heavily contained environment; secondly, because the average age was much older than in Italy. Thirdly, because (to my knowledge) no intensive care units with ventilators etc could be made available. So, let us say that 110k- 120k deaths is the very worst case. Then, let us (merely) halve it to allow for a very bad, resilient virus that does not find so many old people around as aboard the Diamond Princess, but proves resilient to medications, is not killed by warm weather, etc.

We are at 55k-60k deaths, mostly of old people with pre-existing conditions and average age of around 80 years. This is, I think, a realistic worst case. Not, mind, a likely figure, but a realistically assumed scenario for a very bad outcome.

Now, let us recall the great heat wave of 2003, which led to many old people dying of dehydration. At the time (this might have changed afterwards; these numbers always go through a series of adjustments) the talk was of anywhere between 20,000 and 30,000 deaths in France alone. France has around the same population as Italy, give or take single percentage digits. Certainly, a tragedy. However, these figures were calculated months afterwards, when there was nothing more to do about it. Question: would the country have been stopped for all the summer, to allow for the industry to produce a vast number of a/c systems, an army of technicians to install them, and an army of nurses to force everyone to hydrate until he cries? That emergency was, in the end, much less grave than this one, but you get my drift: no one would have asked, then, to stop the entire Country and drive it to the ground to avoid the tragedy. 

We are, realistically, talking here of a maximum of twice the deaths we counted then, not collectively noticing until several months later. It’s a lot of deaths, and it certainly is the Christian thing to do to put in place those measures that can reasonably be put in place to avoid it, allowing all Western Governments to prepare for the tidal wave of people in need of intensive care units and minimise its deadly effect. It did, and it does, make sense to use the emergency brake for a limited number of weeks.

But – hand on heart, and in front of the Blessed Virgin – I can safely say that even the sobering, very sad, tragic figures I am putting in front of you today do not justify the collective economic suicide of a Nation, much less of a Continent, much less of the West. 

And by the by, the Chinese figures are rotten and look more rotten by the day. It is inconceivable that they should have less deaths and – even more absurd – less infected people than Italy, when they went around happily infecting each other for who knows how long, and were prevented from isolating even when the situation was bad enough that doctors on the ground could easily see it. They are going through a carnage now; but people are expendable to them, so they don’t care. So yeah, a huge lot of excrement is happening over there just now; you are merely not allowed to know.

I do not think that anyone can accuse me of downplaying this situation, and I am totally allergic to the rubbish I am reading around the web (don’t try to bring that rubbish here, thanks; this is my virtual home, and I will have none of that crap).

Still, I think that the cure cannot be worse than the disease, and that undue alarm and facebook-induced panic only serves to destroy the fabric of Western Capitalism.

 

 

 

 

Posted on March 27, 2020, in Catholicism, Conservative Catholicism, Traditional Catholicism. Bookmark the permalink. 16 Comments.

  1. Agreed.

    Sad to say, the West has been looking for a bridge to jump from of for decades.

    I just hope the ater turns out to be close and deep.

  2. Leo D. D. Lion

    here are stats from the 2009 – 2010 h1n1 novel virus, for the United States:

    During the pandemic, CDC provided estimates of the numbers of 2009 H1N1 cases, hospitalizations and deaths on seven different occasions. Final estimates were published in 2011. These final estimates were that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010 approximately 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3 – 89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths

  3. After reading Cardinal Burke’s latest interview, it’s amazing to see what you’re saying about the suffering in Bergamo. Last year, he says, Bergamo’s Diocecan website published this prayer to the Pachamama demon: “Pachamama of these places, drink and eat this offering, so that this land is fruitful. Pachamama, good Mother, be generous!” .
    It’s obvious Pope Francis’ scandals led to that. He welcomed this idol into the Vatican, allowed public prostration to it in his presence; blessed it and put it on the altar in St. Peter’s; tried to shame its courageous attacker for dumping copies of it into the Tiber; and publicly apologized for “that theft” and any upset it caused.

    Jesus warned us against judging victims of calamities as being any worse than ourselves, and to look at their end as a warning to repent before sudden death. But Scripture also says Babylon would drink DOUBLE from the cup of God’s wrath for it’s harlotry, and idol worship is the worst form of that.
    Since recent headlines say Bergamo had the highest number of stricken priests in Italy, and you now tell us the death numbers around Bergamo are up to ten times the norm- leaving a sense of evil flying over; it seems God has given them more than double to drink in response to their Bishop and priests asking Satan, rather than God, to “be generous to them”

  4. Maybe it’s no coincidence that Bergamo was the birthplace of John XXIII, who sealed up the third secret of Fatima after claiming it didn’t apply to his pontificate, and then opened Vatican II with the words:
    “We must disagree with those prophets of gloom, who are always forecasting disaster, as though the end of the world were at hand…Divine Providence is leading us to a new order of human relations which, by men’s own efforts and .. beyond their.. expectations, are directed toward.. God’s superior and inscrutable designs. And everything, even human differences, leads to the greater good of the Church.”
    The Council’s bad fruits produced the man who has declared it’s facilitator a Saint, while bringing down God’s wrath on all of us, for eating of that fruit and spreading its poisons, Russia’s errors, while refusing to do what Our Lady asked. Her 3rd secret included the Angel crying: “Penance, Penance Penance” pointing to the earth. Bergamo’s plight today should evoke the same words from us.

    St. John Bosco also prophesied God’s punishment of Italy with a cry to its priests “do you not hear your children begging for the Bread of Faith unable to find one to break it for them?… and asking why they were not preaching the Word of God in the streets and houses and inaccessible places, “Don’t you realize this is the two-edged sword that placates the Wrath of God and man?”
    Maybe our emphasis should shift back to the need for more public repentance with Faith in the power of God, while we also work to alleviate the sufferings, without limiting the work of the Church.

  5. Can I just mention something that was pointed out by a Protestant pastor, Dr. Scott Lively, and surely others, that Rep. Charles Schumer threatened SCOTUS justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh about two weeks ago, remember?

    He said that they “would reap the whirlwind…they wouldn’t know what hit them…”, if they voted against abortion, I believe. He openly threatened them. Of course he is a proponent of NY’s diabolical movement which kicked started the movement across the nation, for full-term abortion, infanticide, which they now conduct. So here Schumer threatened them with something that instead, HE is living, as his city is the epicenter of this terrible pandemic.
    We are hesitant to draw straight lines from one thing to another, but there are times.

    This while we consider Notre Dame, Francis breaking the First Commandment, and now the pandemic, arriving within months.

  6. Mundy,
    Re.: Bergamo prayer, Church Militant was justifying C. Burke’s comments “asking Catholics to reflect on the correlation between the veneration of Pachamama and the coronavirus” – https://www.churchmilitant.com/news/article/cdl-burke-rebukes-churchs-pagan-idolatry-in-coronavirus-epistle . The embedded link seems to be Italian videos which I no speeka: http://www.cmdbergamo.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/sinodo-amazzonia-opuscolo-di-animazione.pdf .

    • Thanks tgmike!

      EDIT: I have perused the horrible stuff. The Archdiocese of Bergamo has merely distributed the document of the CEI, this is the Conferenza Episcopale Italiana, the Italian Bishops’ Conference. They were likely either obliged or put under pressure to do it. In itself, it does not prove they were pushing anything. Truly atrocious stuff, anyway.

  7. Also Mundy, the Bergamo Diocese may just have taken a nudge from Missio, of the Italian Episcopal Conference who published a longer form: https://www.catholicculture.org/news/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=43919&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CatholicWorldNewsFeatureStories+%28Catholic+World+News+%28on+CatholicCulture.org%29%29 . We need to keep in mind 2 Samuel 24:11 et cetera.

  8. I hope this soothes …

  9. Mary Ann Kreitzer

    I wish people would keep things in perspective like you do. The panic and the vilification of those who want the Mass restored is shameful. Thanks for this post.

    • I have not written yet about the masses, I think. That was a big shame and total failure of Catholic thinking, and it nothing to do with being prudent.

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