Daily Archives: April 15, 2020

The Hangover

 

Remember The Week Long Vodka party ?

Well, it seems the first projections of the extent of the hangover are here. Mind, none of the articles i will quote has exact indications of what assumptions have been used. But it is fair to say that it will be something of the sort we are reading around: reopening at some point in May; disruptions for months to come; restaurants, cinemas and entertainment industry completely screwed; coiffeurs more Eltonised than many of them want to be anyway.

The International Monetary Fund has some dire predictions. These are the figures for the expected 2020 GDP.

Let this sink in:

Italy: -9.1%

Spain: -8%

France: =7.2%

Germany: -7.0%

USA: -5.9%

In 2021, none of these countries is expected to recover the losses, with an obvious increase in GDP (unless we have some other global scare caused by our fried-bat-loving friends) going from around half to more than three quarter of the 2020 losses.

Imagine the number of economic activities sacrificed, of dreams shattered, of families ruined. Imagine (as not everybody is as strong and as faithful as us) the number of suicides, with the corresponding number of souls damned forever. Imagine the years of tax rises (more poison injected into the economy, because it will likely be popular!) and of increase of the Left, obviously leveraging on the crisis and seeing in it a way to get new winds in their sails.

What a mess, caused by… mass hysteria.

Mind, not everybody is so pessimistic: Fitch has a different story, based on a brutal contraction for a short time and just as rapid recovery afterwards: referring to Italy, they say minus 3% for the first quarter, then another contraction  of 5% in the second; followed by a strong recovery making Italy close 2020 with “only” a 2% decrease in GDP. We can only hope that the assumptions used for this forecast are realistic.

I am very scared – and very angry – when I hear epidemiologists pontificating about what we “must do”, who actually have not the faintest idea of how an economy work, or no interest at all in the survival of capitalism. There was an idiot on the radio some days ago who was just saying “we will now have to stay locked for a much longer time” (he was reprimanding the naughty British children for their walk in the sun during the Easter break) as if this was something that just has to be, because he says so. 

We need to take the sovereignty (real, presumed, or attempted) of this planet away from these blabbering expert idiots, and give it back to where the decisions are made: the politics.

Unless we stop getting drunk on this extremely strong kool-aid, the hangover is going to be anywhere from atrocious to apocalyptic.

Please, God, let Mr Trump see the light and decide that enough is now most certainly enough. There is an election to be fought in November, and we can’t go there with millions of Republicans angry at the stupid way their dreams were shattered.

Please, Mr President, open your great Country soon.

It will be good for everybody, starting from you.

 

 

 

 

 

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