Daily Archives: July 16, 2020
Let me say this first: I am very optimistic concerning this campaign. I refuse to believe that a half-demented, scandal-plagued nincompoop with 50 years of swamp in his CV, and who chooses to scare everybody with a child or a mortgage with his uber-leftist platform, can defeat the President who gave us such great economic recovery (pre-shutdown).
But there is no overlooking the signs that Trump is making mistakes.
Worse, Trump is making unforced errors, and he better stop soon. He is being, I am afraid, arrogant in his approach, and not attentive enough to what his voters really want from him, and how much they care for the issues dear to them much more than they care for the person of the President. Trump may have inspired a strong following, but their faithfulness is not unconditional. This is not a cult. This is an army following his general because (and as long as) they trust him to give them good leadership in the battlefield.
I see at least four big mistakes during the Presidency, three of them continuing to various degrees.
- He surrounded himself with New York Liberals. Say: Ivanka, Jared, or through-and-through swamp creatures like John Kelly. How he picked Anthony Scaramucci is beyond me. It took him a while to understand that he was listening to the wrong people. I am afraid “Jaranka” still has much more influence on him than it’s good for him.
- He slept two years on the Wall. He recovered from that, and I think the damage on that issue will be very limited. But notice this: his substantial inaction on the Wall ended when he lost the majority in the House. Maybe he got the message. Maybe Anne Coulthard calling him a “faggot” is what woke him up (my pint is on this). But notice this: he acted out of his Presidential powers, showing that he had just looked for excuses to do nothing when he insisted on the House following him. Had he not decided to be the Commander in Chief and take action already, he would now be half-toast. Thankfully, I think this will go well in the end.
- He is making DACA amnesty noises again (I have just published a post about this). I think this is a very dangerous place to be, with the upside vastly overshadowed by the downside if his core voters smell betrayal. I know he is likely playing cat-and-mouse with the Dems, but I still think this is a very dangerous game to play. There is no need whatsoever to do this. Trump’s voters want a strong line on illegal immigration, with no ifs and no buts. He needs to have the courage of his convictions, instead of trying to get a bit of support here and a bit of support there; and again, this is a far too dangerous issue to troll the Dems with.
- He has been too near to Fauci on the Coronavirus for too long, and there will be a (hopefully small, considering the alternative) number of shop owners and small entrepreneurs who will never forgive him for this. I think if there is anything that, in November, might prove fatal to him, is this, even more than back pedaling on DACA. Conversely, I think that if he fares a line of strong support for reopening, he will be well on his way to victory.
Let me say this again: things are looking good, and it works for us that the pollsters live on Planet Liberal. But Trump must avoid becoming overconfident, and letting his occasional arrogance prevail over his desire to help the American people.
With all his good traits, Trump has always been a bit of a maverick. You never know, when you wake up in the morning, which wrong fight he is picking (say: Mattis, Sessions…). In this, you can see why, excellent as he is on the whole, he will be Ronald Reagan.
Playing with a DACA amnesty does not work even among Latinos.
Not only because a poll says so, but because it never could. Trump has run on a platform based on sincerity and transparency; a platform on which he has delivered like no one after Reagan. He should never, ever run the risk of looking like a “traditional” politician merely because he hopes to make the Democrats look bad. If his core voters have reasons to doubt him, he looks already worse than he could ever make the Dems look.
There is no upside in this game. It is an uppity, too-clever-by-half form of one-upmanship. It will backfire.
Trump should be less in love with his (substantial) intelligence and more attentive to give a clear, laser-focused, consistent message to his own voters.
These little tricks will keep me up at night.
Please, Lord, make the man see reason and do not allow him to ruin everything out of sheer complacency and desire to show how clever he is.
As always in life, good citizens need a while to react to extremism, but at some point they react and decide that enough is enough.
I saw that as a child in Italy, when, after several years of being too timid to decide that terrorists had to be dealt with the hard way, things started to go in the only direction they could go bar a Communist takeover: with the majority of the terrorists the other side of the grass. It took years, it built slowly, but we got there in the end.
The same happened with another now forgotten, but then typical Italian plague: kidnappings. At first the public was reluctant to go the hard line, but at some point it happened. Predictably, kidnappings are now all but forgotten. The hard line always work against criminals, and he who tells you otherwise is a fool.
It is the way these things go. The same is starting to happen with the cancel culture. It will take time, but the hysteric bullying and destruction mania of angry Twitter mobs is already on the other side of the tide. When Goya resisted a massive boycott effort (led by no other than AOC, the architect daughter turned Bronx ghetto-girl), the reaction was the opposite one: Goya products are now flying off the shelves as the populations shows these leftists bigots where to shove they boycott calls.
Notice here: this happened only when the Company adamantly refused to apologise to the Twitter Mob. Which is very right, because you don’t want to support a company that (like Chick-Fil-A, or Barilla) can bark for a while, but has no teeth to bite.
Also note: this was a mass reaction. Some philanthropists buying Goya products to give them to food banks would never be enough to cause the widespread scarcity of Goya product that is being noted from too many corners. This has been the common citizen voting with his shopping cart, and showing a finger to the likes of AOC in the process.
This, by the way, is just another indication of how wrong the polling is, either because they are brutally manipulated by leftist activists or because the politically correct leading question skew the votes the wrong way, or because many conservatives just refuse to answer the pollsters or, actually, troll them (which is what I would do).
It is impossible that Trump is 10,12,15 points behind Biden and slays him in fundraising. It is also impossible that Trump is very unpopular, but people flock to the primaries in unprecedented numbers to give him their support. It is also extremely unrealistic to expect that widespread riots will not move an awful lot of voters to support the candidate clearly representing law and order.
All in all, you can see this: that people take a while to react, but then react solidly, and with common sense. Whether Goya, or law and order, or police funding, it seems they are silently moving in the right direction.