Daily Archives: October 10, 2020
You read the gaslighting from the fake news industry and the polls sponsored by the likes of NYT and CNN, you think it is going to be a Biden landslide. It’s not even comedy gold by now. It’s North Korean fun.
Ten to fourteen points advantage for Sleepy Joe. Hillary must be jealous.
But wait, wasn’t Hillary also just as sure to win? Actually, she was. Who said it? The same polls who say Joe is winning today. Do you see a trend here?
And then, when the less intelligent Dems are relaxing and start to prepare their virtual victory party with their “gay friends”, this hammer hits them on the head: Gallup (which is not your usual “pay me and I will give you the result you want” polling institution) says that 56% of Americans think they are better off now than 4 years ago.
Mind, this is during the pandemic. This is, also, better off *now*, not on the average of the last four years.
Obama was at 45% in 2012, and he managed to get reelected, favoured by a non-candidate with no trace of testosterone in him as his opponent. Trump is 11 percentage points ahead of Obama, with the pandemic, and we are supposed to believe that Trump is about to get trounced.
The polls announcing a Biden victory will continue all month, likely with some “adjustment” in the last days if the Dems think the good polls are actually demotivating their base instead of creating that most improbable of miracles, “excitement” for Mr Biden. Therefore, you need to choose whether you want to believe the incessant propaganda, or the reality around you.
If I were you, I would pose myself the following questions:
- What do I see around me? How many of my relatives, friends and acquaintances are switching from Trump 2016 to Biden 2020? How many from Hillary 2016 to Trump 2020? How many who did not vote in 2016 want to vote in 2020, for whom? What does this say to me when adjusted for the State I, and the people I know of, live in?
- What do the people I know say it’s happening in States like Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan or Minnesota? I keep reading of a very excited Republican base; of Republicans defeating Democrats in both new registrations and party affiliation changes in Pennsylvania; of Trump yard signs vastly exceeding the 2016 situation in rural Pennsylvania.
- Who is managing to get in front of the cameras with big meetings, motorcades, boat days, and the likes? How is it that, if the Biden people are so excited, no one shows up with his car or boat to support him, whilst the Deplorables get huge motorcades and boat gatherings?
- How is Biden doing? When he gets out of the basement, how many thousands of people go to see him, have a wonderful day, then drive back home and tell everybody how exciting it all was, how proud they are to have been there? The excitement should actually be bigger still, because the man does not get out much!
- What happens when we compare the polls not with more polls (the polls of polls are just as stupid as the polls of which they are constituted; garbage in, garbage out), but with some solid data from that very reliable source called… the past? How many presidential candidates have finished fifth in the New Hampshire primary and have gone on to win the Presidency? (hint: apparently, zero). How many incumbents have run unopposed and have gone on to lose the presidency? (Hint: apparently, zero). How many candidates have clinched the candidacy on their third full-blown, full USA attempt and have gone on to win the Presidency? (Apparently, zero, if you exclude Reagan; who, if memory serves, in 1968 ran in California only, and won there). Has there ever been a motto along the lines of “it’s the Twitter behaviour, stupid”?
I tell you this: for the moment, I am very, very confident that Trump will win with more delegates than in 2016, it being fully irrelevant how many losers go out of their basement in California, Oregon, Washington, Illinois or Massachusetts to vote for Biden (and… will they?). I will begin to worry only if, and when, reality, not the polls, shows that things are not going as we hope. What I will monitor very closely are the real data when the early voting begins: states like Florida give an extremely detailed daily account of how many voters have voted and how their party affiliation is. This can be compared with 2016 in order to gauge how things are going. For the record, I suspect more Trump voters among Democrat affiliates than Biden votes among Republican affiliates; not only in Florida, but everywhere.
Keep drumming for Trump. Laugh at the “polls”. Reflect that they will likely demotivate one Dem voter for every one they excite. Pray for President Trump and for the victory in November. Do not despair if we lose. Rejoice if we win.
I honestly think we will all rejoice in the end. But it’s not done yet.