Good News From The Hard Data

The first data are in, and they look Melania-good…

As I have written a short time ago, I will adopt an optimistic stance on this election unless and until the facts show me that things are going otherwise. Instead of the polls (which are, simply, fake news), I will look at hard facts like registrations and voter participation, and compare them with the past.

This article has the first usable pack of data I can use. As you can see, it is not all roses, but it’s very good news.

It seems to me that things are looking very good in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, obviously Iowa, and Florida. It seems to me that, if these data are indicative of the reality on the ground, these four States will not even be very close and Trump will comfortably win them with more than 1% advantage (I see another big victory in Iowa). I am less confident about Arizona, for the reasons I will state. Let us see these States one by one.

Pennsylvania. Trump won here in 2016 with a meagre advantage of 0.71%. He needs to keep the Trump Democrats and get a stronger percentage of younger voters/first time voters to coast to victory. Will he manage to do it? It appears so. Reducing the Democrat’s dominance by 200,000 registered voters since 2016 means that there are, out there, 200,000 more people who have newly registered or have newly changed their party allegiance. Will they go to vote? We don’t know, but the fact that these people are clearly new to Republican party registration is a very good sign, as they have recently bothered to register for the Republicans. On the contrary, I can imagine many Democrat affiliates not bothering to vote or, in fact, register with the Democrats to avoid the discussion at the kitchen table, but voting Trump at the polling station.

Plus, Pennsylvania is Black to the tune of 12%. Not terribly much, but I think Biden will lose some 5% or 10% of this demographics, potentially leaving (assuming same voter participation) 0.6%-1.2% on the ground on this demographics alone. Now let me think: how happy are the others (most importantly: the non-college educated Whites) with Trump? I think they are very happy. I read reports of great support for Trump. I think this should be comfortably won in the end.

North Carolina. Trump won here in 2016 by 3.66%. In a word, it wasn’t really close. Heck, even Romney managed to win by more than 2%! Plus, Blacks are 22% of the electorate here. In North Carolina, Republicans have eroded the Democrat advantage in registration by 243,000. Honestly, I don’t think this will be close. I see Trump easily increasing the advantage compared to 2016. He also has a lot of buffer should think not go as expected.

Iowa. You got to be kidding me. Trump won here in 2016 by a staggering 9.41%, in a State deluded Democrats thought was in play. Has he done anything to anger the locals? Thought not. He is also reversing the registration data (more Republicans than Democrats). I won’t waste time on this one.

Florida. Trump won here in 2016 by a solid (for Florida) 1.2%, or around 113,000 votes. Dem registration advantage was chopped by a whopping 154,000 compared to 2016. Again, these are recent registrations or switches in registration, and there will be a lot of voters among these ones. Latinos are on fire. They also gave Trump the victory in the first debate to a crushing 66% to 34%. Everything seems to go according to plan.

Arizona. Trump won here in 2016 by exactly 3.5%. This is McCain land, and has become increasingly more hostile to Republicans. They have elected a Democrat Senator in 2018 (Florida didn’t). They have, to my knowledge, emigration from California, which will be late in translating into absorbing the local values in terms of, say, guns, and might top the State for the Dems. The linked article shows anecdotal advantages of Democrats in the registration game. Privately, I am told by acquaintances that Arizona has a lot of people who are resenting Trump’s policies on immigration, as it threatens to deprive them of the illegals giving them cheap gardening, babysitting and house cleaning duties. It might be poppycock. It might not. I suppose a lot of people in Southern California think the same way, though, and when they move…

It’s early days, and we will get more news; some of them bad, or alarming, as this is always, always the case. But it seems to me that things are going well. If Trump wins Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and, obviously, Iowa, he will be in an extremely strong position even if Arizona goes to the wire. Besides, winning well in Pennsylvania means a high probability of victory in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota. I can’t see Trump losing in Minnesota after the riots and all the money the Trump campaign has spent. I actually see the Dems performing poorly in Minneapolis itself. Give Trump the above states and Minnesota and he can lose, compared to 2016, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and still come out on top; with New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada and possibly Virginia and Colorado (all Dem victories in 2016) in play.

Again, we will see how things progress. But notice that, when the game shifts from fantasy polls to hard facts, Trump starts to look just as good as Melania.

Posted on October 12, 2020, in Traditional Catholicism. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

  1. Voter fraud in PA will be an issue. As the state continues to push mail-in voting, and with a governor clearly believing he can make law on a whim, it isn’t outside the realm of possibility that the PA election is stolen through some act of fraud.

%d bloggers like this: