2020: The Low Hanging Fruits, Part I

I know I should write more about the fake polls flooding us at the moment, but I think it is more interesting for now to examine some of the low hanging fruits of the 2020 Presidential campaign.

I will list them in order of probability that they are turned Republican. The first three now, other later. As always, your mileage may vary.

New Hampshire

Trump lost this State, and his 3 electoral votes, for 2736 votes, or 0.37%. The reasons I think this State will turn Republican are the following:

1. In 2016, it was allowed for students from Massachusetts to drive to New Hampshire, state that they have just moved to New Hampshire but have no official residency there, and vote for New Hampshire. The law required (if memory serves) to officially take out residence within 6 months. What I read in the following years, sporadically, and at various times, is that after six months the votes of the “new residents” were tallied with the new residencies, and an awful lot have been found missing. Therefore, thousands of people (again, IIRC, more than 10,000) said they had moved at the time of the vote, but then miraculously decided to move back to Massachusetts and, therefore, did not take official residency “anymore”. Whether this skewed the vote in favour of Democrats, I leave to your imagination. This must have mightily angered a lot of people. To my knowledge (corrections welcome) residency is now required. I think this will cost the Democrats several thousands of fraudulent votes.
2. This is a State which has as its motto “Leave Free Or Die”. Libertarianism is strong here. I think that the riots and the accompanying thought control must have grated a good number of the locals. Biden and Beto are strong on gun control. Not an easy sell over there.
3. Trump did very well and you can criticise his mentality, but not accusing him of not not doing what he promised to do. I think this will cause more people to vote for him.

It’s not all roses. There are certainly a lot of rabid liberal students or young professionals living in New Hampshire but working or studying in Massachusetts. There is no meaningful Black population Trump can hope to take votes from Biden compared to 2016. I think many people over there do not mind baby killing at all. Still, this seems to me the easiest State to move to the Republican column.

Minnesota

Trump lost Minnesota by 1.52%, without even trying. Even pre-Chinese Virus, with a roaring economy and great resources now dedicated to winning the State, this seemed an easy win.

Then the George Lloyd stuff came, and Minnesotans found themselves in the middle of the Communist pre-revolutionary rage. Now, in my mind there are two types of leftists: the rabid and the moderate ones. The latter must have been shocked not only at the events, but at the cynicism of their elected politicians, willing to deliver them to the mob in order to damage Trump, talking of defunding the police when there is the most need for it, and even allowing a police station to be burned to the ground so that no escalation with fatal consequences occurs (this is unthinkable even in Western Europe). Don’t tell me that this did not have a profound effect on a lot of moderate, left of center, hard-working Minnesotans.

Granted, the Chinese Virus has left more people unemployed. But it is my belief (on this as on any other state), that come November the economic damage will be either largely undone, or those blamed for it will be, very rightly, the Democrats. I just can’t see the pandemic as a meaningful anti-Trump factor anymore.

So we have -1.52% without even trying, plus great ground operation, plus great economy, plus the dress rehearsal for a Communist revolution. I think this is going to flip.

Maine

I am surprised almost nobody talks about Maine. They are generally more leftists than in New Hampshire, but they still have a Republican Senator (of sorts). Not only Trump won one of the districts (and therefore 1 electoral college) there, but he also lost the State as a whole for a rather moderate 2.96%. It seems to me that the State, already in 2016, was not as liberal as it was described. I don’t know how much money the Republicans are spending there, but I would really bet big money on this State. In 2016, 5.09% voted for the libertarian Gary Johnson.  I suspect that there is a relatively limited ideological distance between a Maine Libertarian and a Maine Republican. Plus, the Republican (of sort) Senator is running for re-election, and the chosen tactic seems to be to allow her to abstain in order to capture the moderate vote by still getting her reelected, with her vote to be used when really needed (Kavanaugh). This wil lincrease voters’ participation on the Republican side. This should be feasible.