2020: The Low Hanging Fruits, Part I

I know I should write more about the fake polls flooding us at the moment, but I think it is more interesting for now to examine some of the low hanging fruits of the 2020 Presidential campaign.

I will list them in order of probability that they are turned Republican. The first three now, other later. As always, your mileage may vary.

New Hampshire

Trump lost this State, and his 3 electoral votes, for 2736 votes, or 0.37%. The reasons I think this State will turn Republican are the following:

  1. In 2016, it was allowed for students from Massachusetts to drive to New Hampshire, state that they have just moved to New Hampshire but have no official residency there, and vote for New Hampshire. The law required (if memory serves) to officially take out residence within 6 months. What I read in the following years, sporadically, and at various times, is that after six months the votes of the “new residents” were tallied with the new residencies, and an awful lot have been found missing. Therefore, thousands of people (again, IIRC, more than 10,000) said they had moved at the time of the vote, but then miraculously decided to move back to Massachusetts and, therefore, did not take official residency “anymore”. Whether this skewed the vote in favour of Democrats, I leave to your imagination. This must have mightily angered a lot of people. To my knowledge (corrections welcome) residency is now required. I think this will cost the Democrats several thousands of fraudulent votes.
  2. This is a State which has as its motto “Leave Free Or Die”. Libertarianism is strong here. I think that the riots and the accompanying thought control must have grated a good number of the locals. Biden and Beto are strong on gun control. Not an easy sell over there.
  3. Trump did very well and you can criticise his mentality, but not accusing him of not not doing what he promised to do. I think this will cause more people to vote for him.

It’s not all roses. There are certainly a lot of rabid liberal students or young professionals living in New Hampshire but working or studying in Massachusetts. There is no meaningful Black population Trump can hope to take votes from Biden compared to 2016. I think many people over there do not mind baby killing at all. Still, this seems to me the easiest State to move to the Republican column.

Minnesota

Trump lost Minnesota by 1.52%, without even trying. Even pre-Chinese Virus, with a roaring economy and great resources now dedicated to winning the State, this seemed an easy win.

Then the George Lloyd stuff came, and Minnesotans found themselves in the middle of the Communist pre-revolutionary rage. Now, in my mind there are two types of leftists: the rabid and the moderate ones. The latter must have been shocked not only at the events, but at the cynicism of their elected politicians, willing to deliver them to the mob in order to damage Trump, talking of defunding the police when there is the most need for it, and even allowing a police station to be burned to the ground so that no escalation with fatal consequences occurs (this is unthinkable even in Western Europe). Don’t tell me that this did not have a profound effect on a lot of moderate, left of center, hard-working Minnesotans.

Granted, the Chinese Virus has left more people unemployed. But it is my belief (on this as on any other state), that come November the economic damage will be either largely undone, or those blamed for it will be, very rightly, the Democrats. I just can’t see the pandemic as a meaningful anti-Trump factor anymore.

So we have -1.52% without even trying, plus great ground operation, plus great economy, plus the dress rehearsal for a Communist revolution. I think this is going to flip.

Maine

I am surprised almost nobody talks about Maine. They are generally more leftists than in New Hampshire, but they still have a Republican Senator (of sorts). Not only Trump won one of the districts (and therefore 1 electoral college) there, but he also lost the State as a whole for a rather moderate 2.96%. It seems to me that the State, already in 2016, was not as liberal as it was described. I don’t know how much money the Republicans are spending there, but I would really bet big money on this State. In 2016, 5.09% voted for the libertarian Gary Johnson.  I suspect that there is a relatively limited ideological distance between a Maine Libertarian and a Maine Republican. Plus, the Republican (of sort) Senator is running for re-election, and the chosen tactic seems to be to allow her to abstain in order to capture the moderate vote by still getting her reelected, with her vote to be used when really needed (Kavanaugh). This wil lincrease voters’ participation on the Republican side. This should be feasible.

 

Posted on October 13, 2020, in Catholicism, Conservative Catholicism, Traditional Catholicism. Bookmark the permalink. 12 Comments.

  1. Hello Mundy,

    Great New Hampshire commentary…I started visiting NH back in 1969 and relocated to an area just north of Keen,, NH to live and work for about 20 years and then relocated to the Philly area.

    I love New Hampshire. Unfortunately it has become very “liberal” (I know the Libertarians love it because of the “Live Free or Die” license plate slogan.)

    I still follow the “goings on” up there in the North Country, especially the prolife community and prolife legislation.

    As one New Hampshire prolife acquaintance admitted, “Kermit Gosnell (the butcher/doctor who is now doing prison time for his horrendous baby/mother killing and maiming practice in Philly) would find a welcoming community here in the Granite State.”

    A lot of Massachusetts folks have migrated to NH to escape the “Baked Bean’s State” tax burden. (I did a 4 year stint as the in-state bureau chief for the NH Dept. of Revenue Administration and I can tell you that NH is definitely not “tax free” and it blind sides transplants from other states who don’t do their homework…especially the “legacy and succession tax.”)

    …and then there’s the soviet socialist republic of Vermont.

    Years ago the town of Killington was having a sewerage problem; too many tourists and overwhelmed the system. Vermont residents had bumper stickers made that read, “Killington, home of the effluent.” The wealthy New Yorkers, New Jerseyites and other flatlanders who purchased the Mount Killington condo’s did not find it funny 🙂

  2. I want to wish you a happy Columbus day (belatedly, it was the 12th). I also want to tell you I am impressed by your analyses. I should make a big chart and start watching your predictions. My guess is that you are right more often than wrong. Thanks!

  3. sixlittlerabbits

    Mundabor, do you think it is important to have Maine’s nominal Republican Susan Collins re-elected? I am not sure what you mean.

    • Yes, I do.
      My impression is that she will, when pressed, suck up to the Republican party most of the times. She complied on Kavanaugh (albeit after a lot of theater and look-at-me antics), so to me this should count. A Democrat senator would be worse. I think for ABC will be the same. She will likely abstain and not vote against her, *after having permission to do so*.
      It is what it is. We need to make the best of what we have.

    • sixlittlerabbits

      Thanks, Mundabor. I just looked up Collins’ opponent and she is SO BAD that I am donating to Collins’ campaign.

  4. Vermont has become so infested with liberals and homosexuals, but I repeat myself. Vermont is arguably our most beautiful state, seriously, it’s gorgeous, or it was, I haven’t been there for about 10 years and I don’t live far. It was a postcard no matter where you looked, cows on a hill near a barn, but now it’s all “phony quaint” and probably for profit. You can’t take quaintness seriously when full-term abortion is welcomed in your state. Phonies.
    Massachusetts is nothing but taxation and the worst drivers in the world. They are called “Mass-ho–s”, because they are often reckless and rude. There are just too many people jammed into New England states. Same for Rhode Island, Connecticut. I was in Maine once so I don’t know that state at all.
    Things flow liberal in New England in general. If any of the states leans right at all it’s New Hampshire, which gives Trump a friendly welcome when he visits. But that will diminish as Massachusetts people flood in out of the cities, to get away from the people they swear they love and welcome into their community. As soon as they arrive the for sale signs go up and out the liberals go, to make a mess somewhere else.
    What people say about who they vote for and do are something else. I’m hoping there are enough sensible Americans left to fill in that dot for Trump. Talk about the sheep and the goats, there has never been a bigger divide between our choices. God bless Trump and may he win.

  5. Nice analysis!

  1. Pingback: 2020: The Low-Hanging Fruits, Part 2 | Mundabor's Blog

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