Playing Devil’s Advocate
I am not one of those brainless Libtards who swallow the propaganda of their own party and parrot it day in and day out. I try to make some simple sense checks to see whether I am not going down the wrong road, purely because I want to think that things are just fine.
So, let us think of the scenario that could, in fact, cause a Biden/Harris victory starting, as always, from reality. Reality tells us that there is a huge enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden supporters. So, what could cause Biden to win notwithstanding the undeniable enthusiasm gap?
People who hate Trump would vote for Stalin
Fair enough. There are a lot of people who just can’t stand Trump. They are the TDS apostles, the screaming posters on Youtube and TikTok, the rabid bigots immediately calling you a Nazi for even mentioning Trump’s name. There is a lot of hatred for this man, who is very polarising. Should I be worried?
Not really, I would say. I remember when Reagan was just as hated in 1984. Reagan went on to win in a landslide. Polarising candidates (Reagan, Thatcher, Trump) make the fringes mad, but this does not really damage them with the centre, the moderates, the sane voters. You see them screaming on Twitter, but It’s far more smoke than fire. Yes, people from California, Oregon, Washington, Massachusetts might emerge from their basements in drove to vote Biden. Yes, a lot of people who have not voted in the past will feel good voting against Trump this time. But I think that, as a whole, they will come from States the Democrats are going to win anyway. The Dems will likely win the popular vote again. Let them. Who cares. It will make it funnier to see them cry.
Nobody showing up for Biden does not mean he will not get voted.
Yes. Better said: yes, and no. Hillary also had abysmal presence at her rallies, and she went on to win the popular won and lose Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin for relatively small margins. If you had looked at the difference in enthusiasm alone, you’d have said she was on course to lose Florida by 10 point. It was “merely” 1.2% in the end. Enthusiasm gap does not translate directly into voter’s gap. People who want to keep abortion will not show up at a Democrat rally, but they will vote for a half-dead, demented, corrupted, creepy guy like Biden without a second thought.
Still, it would be the first time in my memory that the candidate who seems to have such a lack of enthusiasm behind him ends up winning in the end. The more so, as we all know that there is no reason not to say that one will vote for Biden. Not even the pollsters mention “silent Biden voters”. In my eyes, such a lack of enthusiasm will not translate in a Reagan-like landslide, but it will be enough to make him lose. I can’t imagine that such a disastrous candidate will not cause the loss of, say, at least 1% or 2% of voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. Not many compared to the totals, but probably decisive for the race.
Biden has no one showing up at his rallies because Democrats are afraid of the Chinese Virus.
Fair enough, at least as partial explanation. We know that the fear of the Chinese Virus is far more pronounced among Democrats than among Republicans. This will translate into more Democrats voting by mail, but still voting, and more Democrats not showing up at Biden’s rallies, but still voting. By the by: expect extremely good, possibly record-braking Democrat mail and early voting data, exactly for this reason.
However, this cuts both ways. If the Dems are scared by the Pandemic, are we sure that they will all go to vote? Postal vote is not possible in several states, and it takes a certain degree of resilience to go to vote knowing one could (cough) “die” of it. I think this is another 1% or 2% left on the ground. And by the by: the Democrats have scared their people for long enough. It will be impossible now to persuade them that it is safe to vote in person. Plus: mail vote is showing a horrible percentage of votes annulled, around 30%. Many Dems are so dumb they can’t even vote by mail. The mail vote might burn for them a lot of votes that would have been perfectly valid ballot votes.
Bonus argument: if the Virus is the issue behind the enthusiasm gap, why are motorcades for Trump everywhere and absolutely massive, and motorcades for Biden are scarce and utterly depressing?
Mail vote will cause more lazy Democrats to vote for Biden
The argument goes this way: many Democrat voters are so lazy that they can’t haul their backside to the polling station. The mail vote will activate this part of the Democrat vote; and even if 30% of these excess votes are annulled, the other 70% will lead Biden to victory.
If Biden wins (quod Deus avertat!), I will likely think that this one was the biggest factor. However, I don’t think that is really so. Anecdotal evidence says that Democrats manage to have a percentage of registered Black voters similar to the ones among Whites (I remember reading data from Georgia a couple of years ago). If true nationwide, this would indicate that the Dems already manage to capture the “lazy ass” electorate already, for example offering bus or car drives. It seems difficult to me that email vote will translate into more Black votes. It might well simply translate into less car drives. Plus, if they are losing 10% or more of the Black vote to Trump, it will make it even more difficult to get an advantage from this.
I have tried to find as many arguments as I can. I think there is some merit in all of them. I do not think any of them represents a real danger for now.
I will be eagerly awaiting the provisional voting data from Florida. If, as I think, the Democrats will see their advantage unchanged or reduced (or even only slightly increased) compared to 2016, I will see in this a very good sign. This would mean that the cultural preference for early voting among Democrats is not really translating into a substantial Dem advantage (remember: if you are scared of Covid and you can’t vote by mail, as I think you can’t in Florida, you vote early to minimise the queue).
We shall see.
Please be in good spirit, pray for Trump’s victory, and hope for the best.