Daily Archives: October 18, 2020
The first hard numbers from Michigan are in, and they are very good.
I need to make two preliminary observations before getting into the numbers. One: you can expect the Dems to lead the early and mail vote, as their (generally) superior ground operation is better at “securing” the votes before the election day proper. Two: this is particularly true this year, as the Dems have been conditioned to believe that voting in person, or with crowds, is dangerous and are naturally motivated to vote early, or via mail, more than this happened in the past. Expect, as a rule, a stronger Democrat presence in the early vote this year than this was the case in 2020. Then the 3 November comes, and the cavalry (hopefully) changes the course of the battle.
In Michigan, there is a new element: the electoral law was changed, making it easier to vote earlier and via mail than it was before. If you listen to the MSM, this all but guarantees Biden a victory there, as the section of the Democrat electorate that normally can’t bother to haul their ass to the polling station will be motivated to vote, and give the victory to their half-dead, creepy, corrupt candidate.
So, the Dems felt very safe in Michigan. Then, the State of Michigan revealed that, as per yesterday, around 24% of the expected voters have already cast their ballot. This is a big percentage, but in line with what we have said before: Dem ground game, Virus fears and new electoral law all contribute to an increase in early and mail vote. And the result? Republican affiliated voters are more numerous than Democrat affiliated voters. The site TargetEarly2020 had the numbers, but no snippet because either the graphics seem not to work today (they did yesterday), or TargetEarly2020 have decided to ditch the official data altogether, in order to promote their own “modeled” prediction, which differs from the raw, official data and is, like all the rest of the polls, not fact but fiction (mind: it’s bad news for the Dems anyway..). [EDIT: Targetearly is affiliated with the Democrats. it might explain both their “modeled” prediction and the disappearance of the official data).
Still, the data is there and it is official: more Republican affiliated voters than Democrat affiliated voters had cast their vote early, as per official Saturday night data.
What does this mean? Does it mean that Democrats have suddenly decided to defy the Pandemic and go vote all together in November cold? Does it mean that Democrats plan to win with the independents? Does it mean that the new electoral law is proving a boon for the Republicans, who are now able to tap on a “distracted/formerly not interested/lazy Republican” clientele who did not vote before, but decided to profit from the new rules and vote early this time? Or does it, very simply, mean that the enthusiasm among Republicans in Michigan is through the roof, and this starts to reflect already in the early vote?
I think the first and second scenario are not realistic. If you ask me, we are seeing a mixture of the third and fourth one. This makes a victory in Michigan, whilst not assured – nothing is assured until the victory is in the bag – certainly more likely.
And in fact, let us reflect on the feelings of your average Michigander as the 2020 election is under way. Has Trump delivered on his promises? Check. Are the prospects for the economy good? Check. Is Trump the one generally considered to be more capable to deal with the economy than Barely Alive Joe? Check. Are the shocking Biden scandals going to help the Republicans? Check. Do the Republicans have an Incumbent running? Check.
Facts, common sense, and early vote data are all pointing in the same direction.
In Michigan, I think Biden has good reasons to be scared.