Daily Archives: October 29, 2020
Pay attention, that every time you refresh it defaults on Early Vote In Person. This is interesting for us (Republicans are dominating this), but I would invite you to scroll down the page and select (you will have to do it again every time) “Early Votes: All”. This gives you the official count of all early vote (Vote By Mail plus Early Vote In Person) as per the last update, which happens every 30 minutes or so when the vote is ongoing.
As I write this, Democrats have an advantage of just shy of 202k votes in the total of early votes. It is not going well for them, at all.
The Democrats have bet the farm on early vote, both to mobilise their lazier voters and to feed their “Trump’s pandemic will kill us all” narrative. Therefore, you would expect them to lead by far higher margins by now. Instead, their higher margin at the beginning of the count was steadily eroded, as vote by mail was quickly counted and Republicans showed surprisingly strong “early vote in person” numbers day after day. As I write this, they have been eroding the Dem advantage to the tune of around 45k a day. I bet my pint this trend will continue today and tomorrow with pretty much the same, or a similar, strength.
You can also play with the single counties. You will then see that, Miami Dade “only” has a 10% Democrat advantage in aggregated early vote, and Republicans are even winning the early vote in person.
Republicans will most certainly outvote Dems by *a lot* on Election Day. Therefore, if things remains as they are, you are going to see Miami Dade either moving to the Republicans or going near it. This is a death sentence for Biden not only in Florida, but for the entire race.
It is not all as rosy. Dems have been strong in the “souls to polls” exercises: driving or busing people to the polls after church on Saturday or Sunday. It did not work much last weekend, it might work better, or much better, the next one. How many churches are open in Florida, I don’t know. I would say, not many. This was another reason why the Dems set all on early vote by mail.
Your eyes are not deceiving you. The enthusiasm for Trump is huge, and it comes in addition to the certainly present “shy vote”. So, you have an awful lot of people who are fired up and say it, and more people who are angry with the Dems, but are afraid to say it.
Important: the past (since 1968; this is a lot of past) has shown that if an incumbent increases his votes in Florida compared to when he was elected, he increases his votes in the Rust Belt, too. There is no reason to believe this year will be an exception, particularly after Biden’s fracking and fossil fuel comments. This means that a victory in Florida exceeding 1.2% (which seems very likely to me, with the “souls to polls” next weekend the only unknown) will likely translate into increased numbers in those states, too.
Everything indicates that Trump will win the independent vote (he did it in 2016, too). How much, we don’t know. But they will help us as an aggregate, in Florida and elsewhere.
Everything also indicates more Ds voting Trump than Rs voting Biden. We don’t know how much, but I think it will be noticed very clearly on Election Night.
Things are going well, my friends. Only complacency and/or fraud can stop Republicans from winning Florida now. I can exclude the second as Florida has robust vote mechanisms in place. The first is the one for which we must continue to pray.