Last Pieces Of Advice On Election Day

As I prepare to spend a sleepless night rooting for the unborn (and many other things besides), I would like to give my readers some last pieces of advice.

Stay away from the exit polls

I have already suggested that the MSM be avoided altogether. However, as the day progresses the temptation “to know” will be very strong for some. Please avoid it. They are toxic. They will gaslight you to the very end. Please stay away. Thanks.

If you really want to have an idea of how things are going…

… look here. This is the Florida map, updated every half hour or so, by party affiliation. This is now by total votes, that is: votes by mail plus early vote in person plus vote cast up to… now during election day. As I write this, Republicans are up 148k (at last update before press: it was +133k when I started writing!). This is amazing. If Rs lead even by party affiliation, when you add the expected (small) lead among independents and the obvious, bigger crossover from Ds to Rs than from Rs to Ds (the unavoidable consequence of all those Cubans and Venezuelans, plus a no small number of Blacks, now supporting Trump) you get an idea of what is happening. I think we might end the voting day with Rs up 200k + in the party affiliation, and much more than this in the final tally. Florida is a safe state now, and there will be no “malarkey” in Broward County anymore (tightened rules, and at least one “usual suspect” people kicked out in recent years).

And if you really are not easy to please…

… reflect on this: in the last decades, whenever an incumbent President has increased his vote in Florida, he has very often increased it also in the States which interest us today: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin.

Folks, things are going seriously well, and it is stunning to read on Twitter all those Dems still so confident of victory. They will, I think, cry twice as hard.

Summa summarum: a realistic (not assured, but realistic) scenario sees Trump carrying more or less easily all the States he carried in 2016, ex PA, WI and MI. This is 260 electoral votes reasonably in the bag. No, I don’t think AZ is in play. Close, yes, but lost, no. I might be wrong. But I am often right.

The only thing that Trump will, then, need, is a last assault at the remaining ten electoral vote by winning *one* of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or the combination of Nevada and New Hampshire. He won the first three in 2016 and is well placed now, particularly in the first two. He is well within the reach of the other two. And he needs only one of these paths, whilst Biden would need all of them.

“But Mundabor, Mundabor! Trump might not win any of those states!” Yes, he might. He might lose Arizona, for all I know. I just don’t think he will. Plus, remember: the incumbent increasing his vote in Florida is quite likely to increase his votes it in WI, PA and Mi, too; all three are States he carried in 2016.

Yes, there will be litigation. Yes, PA will be a mess for days to come, and I think likely that only the Supreme Court will put an end to the Democratic machinations and frauds. Yes, there will be moments when you think things are not going so well. But stay cheerful and pray. Biden surely would want to be in our situation now.

Last pieces of advice

Ohio will likely count the early vote first. Expect an early lead of the Dems in Ohio, hopefully (I would say: quite likely) destroyed by Rs as the night progresses.

Iowa: I seem to remember they do like Ohio: early votes first = early Dem advantage.

Pennsylvania: Scranton and Philadelphia votes tend to come faster than the rural zones. I also don’t know how they treat early votes. Expect a sizeable to huge advantage for Biden at the start (particularly if they count all early vote first), and then enjoy the ride as the Republicans run after the lead in the race.

Florida: Broward/Palm Beach/Miami-Dade County votes tend to come somewhat late, possibly because in the past they had the habit of first deciding how many votes they “needed”. Wait for Broward, Miami Dade and Palm Beach to be depleted of votes before you open a bottle. However, I suggest you put the bottle in the fridge now.

Florida: the panhandle has a different time zone. Expect a lot of R votes to come from there, potentially offsetting the onslaught of “late votes” from, say, Broward.

Sources

Conservative Treehouse: see other posts. 

Larry Schweikart will have his live feed here.

Steven Crowder has a youtube channel that should have another live feed (I think language can be raunchy at times. But they are good people).

Peoples Pundit Daily (Twitter feed here) should have a database here. It does not work well as I write this, and I fear it will repeatedly crash if the traffic is too much. An alternative to the damn NYT (who also want your email for a “free trial” to get past their paywall) is the just as damn New Yorker, which has one that seems free from paywall. I’ll try to avoid it, but in a pinch it will do. Lovely typeface, too.

[EDIT: RIGHT SIDE BROACASTING NETWORK appears to have a live programme on Youtube]. 

Guys and dolls, it has been a glorious ride, and I will never forget the excitement and hope of these days of prayer and battle.

We are, hopefully, and God willing, almost there.