The Ukraine And You, Part II

I have described in my previous post how I see the situation from a geopolitical point of view. I would like, here, to make some prediction about the future and give my two cents about what I think it’s happening.

First: there is going to be no invasion. Putin is intelligent. I’d say he can vastly outsmart the EU, let alone the Demented Thief. He could never invade the Ukraine with 100,000 people unless he expects no resistance and it would be a politically risky and very expensive proposition to go all-in. Perhaps the gender-uncertain people at the EU and NATO are worried because they know there would be little or no resistance?

Second: Putin wants to consolidate the long shadow he throws over the Ukraine and, possibly, make it darker. Both because of what I have written in the former post and because he wants to show the EU who has a Willie, and who has a Mangina. In fact, the EU does not even have a Mangina. They are merely trying to work on one.

Third: Putin wants to tests the waters, as he will likely gauge whether a coup d’etat in the Ukraine is feasible. If (big if) it’s feasible, he will need the current confrontation in order to house train the EU and NATO to limit themselves to the usual talk, but without any walk, when the time comes; if it’s not, he will still have asserted himself, and he will have made clear that the Ukraine is off-limits for both EU and NATO. He already has a couple of “independent republics” faithful to him. He could extend the gains and humiliate Kiev even more. I think when the microphones are switched off, everybody gets it.

Fourth: Putin wants every American to ask himself: do we want our soldiers to die for the Ukraine? The question is not a dumb one, as even my cat has amply realised that, in the very improbable event of an invasion, the Ukrainian army would fold before you can say “Putin”, and the extremely flat nature of the land would give them nowhere to run, either. Nor would the European NATO Countries go in, firstly because it would be politically suicidal and second because they would have, realistically, a very bad hand against the hardened and technologically savvy Russian army. Therefore, in the end it would be the old U S of A who, in various guises (“security advisers” or the like) sends down to the Ukraine ten or twenty battalions, just so Biden can play “freedom fighter “ whilst his son snorts so much white powder you could make pizza with it.

But again, this is all just not going to happen. Putin is not going to invade. What Putin is doing is, very simply, marking his territory.

This is, to me, so obvious, that I wonder if there is even one political operative who has not understood it yet.

Still: you, dear reader, will be deafened with the usual virtue signalling calls to peace and dialogue, after the aggressive expansion politics of the EU and the encirclement attempt of the NATO have caused the issue in the first place.

The Ukraine shall remain within the traditional cultural sphere of influence of the old Kievan Rus’.

It is fitting, prudent, even Christian that things should stay that way.