The Going Gets Though
For now almost seven months, Russia has conducted a military operation with white gloves, and very much “on the cheap”.
I have a feeling this all ends now.
It becomes now clearer what the plan was all along: make a ton of money all Spring and Summer whilst Europe is left half-starved of energy, before turning on the pain factor for Ukraine and, well, the West when it starts to get colder and harsh realities count more than virtue-signalling.
It is also clear, to me at least, that all the events of yesterday were carefully planned and coordinated: the referendums – not only in the two Donbas States, but in almost all of old Novorossiya – put to sleep once and for all the naive idea that Putin might agree to end the hostilities and go away with Lugansk and Donetsk only.
Russia is going to be enlarged by four historical provinces. More soldiers are needed for the harder push that will follow, and to make those territories really Russian rather than aspiring territories defended by militias. The legal framework for the new situation must be created. All this has been announced in, basically, one day. It’s all part of the new phase of operations.
Make no mistake: Zelensky is shitting his pants. Scholz, Truss & Co., too.
All points to the fact that, at some point in October – perhaps as early as the first or second of October – the Western help to Ukraine (the satellites, the intelligence personnel, the weapons, and the “mercenaries”) will have to be seen as direct hostility towards the Russian people and land.
If my analysis is correct, this means that the Western powers will very soon be put in front of the choice to a) back off or b) face direct military action. A total loss of face in the first case, and a total humiliation – and immense tragedy – in the second.
No matter what the Baghdad Bob Media say, the situation on the ground is very simple: in a conventional war, Russia can obliterate NATO every day of the week. As it is, NATO has ammo for perhaps two weeks, three weeks max, but I doubt they would have many tanks or howitzers left after that time. The only thing that Putin will have to do – and he will most certainly do it – is to avoid attacking the American soil. The immense losses he will cause to NATO soldiers and military infrastructure in Europe will soon persuade even the most stubborn “Slava Ukraini” do-Gooder that staying alive and living in a functioning country comes first.
Will NATO listen? This is the same as to ask: are they really as stupid as they look? Or was it all posturing to please the Twitter crowd? On one hand, I trust that reason will prevail. On the other hand, these people might be so stupid as to think that Putin is bluffing. I am an optimist, and keep thinking that they are not that stupid; not even Scholz, van der Leyen, Borrell, or Truss (well, the jury is out on this one).
If the Biden hits the fan, the only real alternative for the West to total defeat and utter humiliation will be nuclear escalation. This is, I really hope, not happening, because the Pelosi, Graham, Truss and Macron of the world will not want to sacrifice their comfortable lives for a nuclear Holocaust (and no, it’s not about you; they would let you die in a second).
Every other scenario is a loss-loss-loss for the West, and Ukraine made mincemeat of. The Americans will never countenance a huge rearmament program meant to give them the powerful industrial apparatus – which they now don’t have, as they only produce software, consultancy companies and a vast number of “genders” – needed to defeat Russia. They are hopelessly inferior in missile technology. They would be torn to pieces conventionally first and, if nothing else helps, with nukes later. They would, in fact, end up choosing self-extermination for the sake of a bunch of effing Neonazis they actually wanted to use as cannon fodder to “extend” Russia (google Rand Corporation Extending Russia, it’s all there). Not a smart choice.
Of course, I do not know whether Putin will choose the brutal escalation that Donbas becoming Russia (again) should engender. But if I know the Russian culture, history and mentality well enough this is what, at that point, all Russians will expect of Putin.
From memory: During WWII, Italy lost around 200,000 people.
The USA around 450,000.
Let that sink in, and reflect how likely it is that the Russians are scared of their losses now.