Aggression, Or: Looking For That Fort Sumter Moment.

Lincoln forced the Confederates to shoot the first cannon shot at Fort Sumter, which gave him the ammunition he needed for his aggression.

Roosevelt put sanctions on Japan that gradually became so aggressive as to force the exact event he wanted: an attack on the US which would then precipitate a war against both Japan and (which he also wanted) Germany.

Lyndon Johnson used something that actually never even happened (the Tonkin Incident “Part 2” on the 4 August 1967) to start a massive, ultimately failed adventure in Vietnam.

The truth is: the American People are, and always were, a very peaceful bunch. They are no friends of expeditionary wars. They prefer, as a whole, to leave their lives in peace, in their own pretty unassailable Country, knowing that it is not their job, or their moral duty, to heal the ailments of the world. To them, Manchuria should not be an American problem.

As a result, when ideology, or geopolitical interest, or even well-intentioned Patriotism persuade a US President that it is time for war, he will have to fabricate the pretext for one.

It’s as simple as that. Ask Lincoln.

Fast forward to 2022: a number of hawks in Washington, who lack the most elementary knowledge of military things, think that the Ukraine is a beautiful way to stab Russia in the heart or, if that does not work, at least kick it in the balls. But they also know that, nowadays, you can’t just invent a Tonkino Incident and “get to work”.

They will, therefore, first find the useful idiots willing to do the dying as the US does the paying. They will sabotage the Minsk agreements as Ukraine is heavily rearmed; they will look the other way as the Ukraine kills 13,000 civilians; they will build fortifications everywhere, and wait for the right moment.

Starting from the 18th February 2022, they will instruct the Ukrainian Government to multiply their shelling of Donbas civilians, from 200 to unbelievable 2000 shells a day. This will force, literally force Putin to do what he never wanted to do: give the Ukrainian a good spanking.

And there you have it, the famous “war of aggression”. Now you have, finally, “the people” on your side. Slava Ukraini!! What follows is an expensive, bloody geopolitical game, where the armament lobbies in the US get $100bn in gifts (they will be very thankful to a lot of people of both sides of the aisle), Ukraine gets massacred, and the grand Sanctions Plan fails so spectacularly that , in comparison, the British Suez adventure in 1956 looks like the work of a genius.

I wonder what happens now. Even Lindsay Graham by now understands that the sanctions have failed, and Russia will crush the Ukraine like a nut at Christmas time. But does he understand that the US absolutely cannot fight Russia in a conventional war, or is he as stupid as the great love of his life, John McCain? How many Grahams walk along the corridors of power in Washington? How many of them are linked to the Military Industrial Complex? How many of them think, perhaps in perfect good faith (you see, I am trying to be fair to Lincoln here) that the time has come for a Roosevelt 2.0?

I think there is more than some. A gas pipeline was blown up (yes, pal: by the US). The Soviet-era tanks came first, to the hundreds. They were destroyed. The Western tanks were taboo, and they are now also coming to the hundreds. The warplanes were also taboo, and they are now in the headlines every day. You will forgive me for thinking that it’s as if someone wanted the Russians to absolutely attack NATO installations, so they have their Fort Sumter moment.

There is a time for peace and a time for war. I agree that, should that time come, faithful Catholics will be found on both sides of the trenches. I am also ready to admit that there are good patriots on both sides.

But, my dear US, and European, reader, pay attention to this: there are people who are trying to sucker you in a conflict that you didn’t want….

because “aggression”.