Stalingrad Revisited

I wonder where Mr Z took his stubbornness from…

When Soledar fell, now many weeks ago, I predicted that the timing of the fall of Bakhmut would depend on how many soldiers the Ukrainians were ready to sacrifice there. It turns out they were, and still are, very many, to such an extent that the battle for Bakhmut already makes those for Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Lisichansk and Soledar pale in comparison. This is, hands down, the biggest meat grinder ever staged in Europe since the end of WWII.

The Western presstitutes are repeating their old Baghdad Bob trope, albeit with variations forced by an increasingly more evident reality on the ground. The latest trend seems to be that whilst the Ukrainians are suffering, they are inflicting enormous losses on the Russians, such that it is, in fact, pretty much a victory when they lose and have – those who are still alive at least – retreated. Readers of this little effort, of course, know better.

It seems to me that there is a Stalingrad mindset at work here. I mean by this that, once a military objective has been emotionally amplified by one side, this side finds it impossible to let this objective go, up to the point where its defence ends up attracting men and materials vastly out of proportion with its objective importance in the strategic picture of the conflict.

Hitler made this mistake in Stalingrad, as it became impossible for him to let his big trophy go. He ordered his troops not to retreat, pumped huge resources into a losing game, then tried long and hard to mount an offensive to rescue his surrounded soldiers. All in vain, of course. Had he followed the advice of his generals, he would have been in much better shape for the further course of the war. But no, the favourite toy could not be allowed to go.

Zelensky has put himself, now, in the same situation. Bakhmut is part of what the Ukrainians call the “Zelensky line”. He brought to Washington a flag signed by Bakhmut soldiers. He spoke many times of Bakhmut as the turning point of this conflict. In a word, he has staked his face on it. Like Hitler, he was told by his generals to be smart about it. Like Hitler, he couldn’t get himself to do it.

Meanwhile, the Russians gloat. They have found the perfect meat-grinder to “demilitarise” and “denazify” the Ukraine. Their losses are in the region of 1/10 of the losses they inflict. They are using Bakhmut as a huge black hole where Western equipment and Ukrainian soldiers simply go and disappear. They probably wish this could go on for a long time still. They certainly are in no rush to risk excess casualties for a fast resolution. They will use the meat grinder for all it’s worth.

Herein hides a cautionary tale. Wars will always cause casualties, but the total lack of discernment Zelensky has exhibited here will haunt Ukraine for a long time once the real story of the horrendous losses for an untenable position finally becomes common knowledge.

Zelensky will, from his likely golden exile in Miami, have to live with that, too. Frankly, I doubt he will be much upset.

This might well prove a Stalingrad where only the little people die.