Why The Polls Lie

I would like to connect to yesterday’s post and reflect on why the polls are the way they are, what interest Dems have in polling the wrong way and why they, in short, do not have any alternative to lying.

Let us, first, reflect on this: very often, news outlets pay for the polls. This is, mind, not your severe, state-owned TV station in the Fifties, like RAI in Italy, to whom accurate polling was a sacrosanct matter of credibility. The environment is, now, dominated by news outlets who have openly, blatantly, chosen the candidate they want to support. More than this, these are now not outlets who carry out a serious, balanced, fact-based journalistic activity, and then write an editorial one week before the election stating their endorsement. On the contrary, they are organisations in which the political orientation is all-pervasive, and dominates everything from proper political coverage to morning shows to sport coverage. In this perspective, it is obvious that the polls, like all the rest, will have to be in service of the mandated narrative. The poll paid for by CNN will always have a result that is as much pleasing to CNN as reasonably and, often, even unreasonably possible. Every time you read that the poll was made “with” NYT, CNN, ABC, NBC, or the like, you know you are being gaslighted, 100% of the time.

Then there is another big, big issue. Polling as a Democrat is a nasty business. Even if you are allowed to operate with a degree of independence, telling the truth will have an army of Twitter lunatics demanding that you are fired and your firm boycotted and utterly cancelled. Nate Silver was almost crucified in 2016 for merely suggesting that Hillary had “only” 70% probability of winning. The Twitter Mob does not allow for any measure of reality to filter to the polls, and they will try to utterly ruin you if you refuse to comply. Mind, I am sure that Nate Silver knew, at that time, that Trump had way more than 30% probability of victory. He just understood how dangerous would have been for him to simply say what the situation on the ground was.

The third factor to consider is the intended recipient. The intended recipient of the poll is not an educated, informed voter. They know all too well how things stand. The target of the poll is the army of poorly informed, distracted, low-interest voters who do not really educate themselves about the political situation, but are happy to absorb its echoes. They are the people who read the title of the poll article, or are merely told at the water cooler about the title others have read. This is what all is about: a pretext for a title that says “Biden 12 points in the lead”. Then the pollster and journalist will admit, in the article and the notes, that Democrats have been overrepresented to the tune of 10%, the polls is among registered voters, and minorities/younger people have been overrepresented, too. Why? Because they need the title that Biden is 12 points in front.

Last point: why do they do that? Why do they run the risk of having their people become lazier than they already are and not show up to the poll? To me, the answer to this is very simple: reality would utterly destroy Biden’s chances, as the candidate generates no enthusiasm at all. Therefore, making clear to the Country that the guy is in dire straits would never cause the mobilisation that, say, a Trump would engender. The MSM need to choose between the risk of their voters becoming complacent and the risk of them admitting defeat one month before the election. It is obvious that they choose the first, come what may. The lie might become the truth and cause a victory for Biden caused by millions of voters not being told how big Trump’s advantage was. The truth will, however, never lead Biden to victory.

Next month, we will hear more surprised voices about the “hidden vote”, or, rather the “hidden racism”, which “does not dare to reveal itself to the pollsters”.

Alas, this is the reality we live in. At this point, do not expect much in the way of “corrections” in the last days before the elections, either. It will have to be lies to the very end.